As we approach the weekend, football fans are eagerly awaiting a set of thrilling clashes that promise to be packed with goals, drama, and unexpected twists.
From the high-flying Bolton aiming to make a mark in League One to Gillingham’s rise to the top, there’s a wealth of intriguing narratives to follow. Colchester’s search for form and Wrexham’s sensational return to the Football League are other storylines to keep an eye on.
Here’s a detailed preview of some of the most exciting fixtures, including insights, predictions, and key statistics that could shape the outcomes.
Burton vs Bolton
The two clubs have met nine times since 2015 with the hosts proving somewhat of a difficult side for Bolton to overcome. The Brewers have won five and drawn three of the games with the only defeat coming in last season at Bolton in a 2-1 defeat. However, the fortunes of the two clubs are changing with the aspirations of the hosts to survive another season in League One with Bolton having realistic aims of climbing back into the Championship.
The visitors were flying this season with three wins from their opening three games, scoring nine in the process and conceding just once which only came after they had been reduced to 10 men in bizarre circumstances. They were then beaten 4-0 by Wigan who were ruthless on the counterattack with four goals from six shots on target and an xG of just 1.59 whilst the Trotters generated an xG of 3.59. I have Bolton still top of the table on xPTS and xG and then 2nd for xGA with no sides facing fewer shots.
Burton are yet to win this season with four defeats and one draw, keeping just one clean sheet and finding the net just once. They have now won just seven games in their last 20 outings and its going to be a long hard season for them. After four games I have them 21st for xG with a total of just 3.99 or 0.99 per game. 18th for xGA and only Lincoln have registered fewer shots than the Brewers so far this season.
Bolton have a squad that’s impressive for League One with Victor Adeboyejo, Dion Charles, Randell Williams and Josh Cogley with experienced players like Cameron Jerome and the excellent Carlos Mendes Gomes currently struggling for game time. We may see some changes after last weekend’s beating. Burton have a mounting injury list and key striker Cole Stockon is still sidelined. Manager Dino Maamria has told the local press that his side remain positive despite a poor start to season, which is a bit of an odd comment given they have only played four games!
Burton struggle to score goals and come up against a Bolton side that are defensively very good. I don’t think this will be a high scoring game, but Bolton should be smarting after last weekend and will want to immediately bounce back.
- Bolton win at even money with Betfair and Coral.
Gillingham vs Colchester
In late 2022, US property tycoon Brad Galinson brought a majority shareholding in the Gills and since then there has been major changes on and off the pitch. Galinson quickly brought in Andy Hessenthaler and Kenny Jackett. Hessenthaler returned as Head of Recruitment with Jackett taking up the role of Director of Football. With manager, Neil Harris, these three have been instrumental in the upturn of results that has seen the club move from 23rd in the table in late February to finish 17th and 12 points clear of the relegation places. Over the last 20 games of last season, they had the 6th best record in the division with W10-D4-L6 and they have carried on this form and currently sit top of the table. The arrivals of experienced Macauley Bonne from Charlton and Jonny Williams from Swindon have helped the squad whilst Ashley Nadesan has now scored two goals in four games since his arrival from Crawley.
This season they are W4-D0-L0 scoring 4 and have yet to concede.
Colchester have struggled for the last few seasons and have had a high turn over of managers over that period. He did look like they had finally found someone to guide the club over a longer period with ex player Matt Broomfield returning and improving results and performances. However, he was then offered the job at his old side Wycombe and off he went to leave Colchester looking for their 5th managers in 3 years.
Ben Garner got the role. He has had limited success over his management career to date with this best return coming at Swindon where he won 50% of his games, guiding the team into the play off semi-final. A disappointing record at Charlton followed where he won just 31% of fixtures. Garner did enough to guide the club away from relegation fears last season, but this season hasn’t started well with W0-D0-L3 meaning its now five league defeats on the spin. Bottom for xPTS, 3rd bottom for xG and the 3rd highest xGA with no team conceding more shots over 90 mins than Colchester.
Colchester have conceded an XGA of 2.0+ in all three of their league games this season and that’s going to cause any side problems. The Gills although low scorers will have opportunities against Colchester. The hosts are yet to conceded and therefore I am happy to take them to win but a low scoring game and go under 4.5 goals, which means that even if the visitors do get the scoresheet, we have 2-1 and 3-1 on our side.
- Gillingham win and under 4.5 goals at 23/20 with BetVictor.
Barrow vs Wrexham
Wrexham returned to the Football League has made national news given the current owners, but unfortunately the results on the pitch haven’t quite lived up to the hype so far. There were 26 goals across the four games played by Wrexham with some remarkable scorelines – 3-5, 1-1, 4-2 and 5-5. Despite the five points I have them 3rd on xPTS, 1st for XG and 7th for xGA, which is a little surprising given that no side has conceded more than Wrexham so far this term.
However, only five sides have a greater xGA per shot, meaning the shots they do give up tend to be quality chances and with only five sides conceding more shots on target it’s not hard to understand why they keep conceding.
Going forward only Mansfield have had more shots and no side has a higher conversion rate of shots to shots on target than Wrexham.
Paul Mullin is still out injured so Ollie Palmer will lead the line for the visitors, but its Elliot Lee that’s caught the headlines so far this season with four goals and one assist. The front players have all contributed to the goals this season and I see no reason why this would stop. Manager Phil Parkinson has commented on how delighted he has been with the performances of Jake Bickerstaff who had scored in his last two starts in his debut season.
Wrexham kept only seven clean sheets on the road last season and against the better sides home and away it was seven clean sheets from 26 games against the sides that finished 14th and above in the National League, obviously this season they are yet to record a clean sheet. Going forward they have now scored in 30 of their last 31 league games across the two divisions.
Barrow are looking to build on their 9th place finish last season. At home they had the 6th best record in the division scoring 29 goals. They did fail to score in nine of their 23 home games last season but with the Wrexham defensive record and whilst the Welsh sides are still missing a few defenders they should find the net. This term they have scored in three of their four games, failing to score at Stockport, which isn’t a concern given how good well Stockport are anticipated to go this season. In their only home game this season, Barrow hit 1.81 xG, 18 shots with five on target.
I am happy to go with the trend of both teams to score here, but we can boost the odds by adding over 2 goals.
- We can back BTTS at 6/5 with Bet365
The post EFL Tips: Burton vs Bolton, Gillingham vs Colchester & Barrow vs Wrexham appeared first on MrFixitsTips.
