The latest instalment of Dublin and Mayo is as fascinating as any of the clashes between the sides in the last decade, as both teams will look very different from the 2020 All-Ireland final line-ups.
Dublin are without Stephen Cluxton, as well as a few others who started last year’s final, while Mayo must make do without their all-time record scorer Cillian O’Connor – you could argue all day long about who is the bigger loss.
James Horan has done a remarkable job in reinventing Mayo and he has unearthed some talented attackers in Tommy Conroy and Ryan O’Donoghue, while Dessie Farrell has finally given Cormac Costello a chance to shine on the big stage.
Points Look the Way to go
The best bet on the coupon is undoubtedly for 40 points or fewer in the total points market, with the outright match odds seeing Dublin at 20/49 and Mayo available at 49/20.
These sides have met nine times in the championship in the last decade and only once has that total been surpassed – in the 2015 All-Ireland final replay which Dublin won 3-15 to 1-14.
Interestingly, in five of the nine outings there have been a total of 35 points scored, while the others have finished with 30 points, 36 points and 36 points.
All nine games have either been in an All-Ireland final or semi-final when the stakes have been sky-high and game-management in the closing stages was crucial.
Dublin Excel Under Pressure
That is where this legendary Dublin team has excelled in the last decade. When the game is won by two, they don’t try to win it by five or six. They hold onto possession and frustrate their opponents.
Take the Leinster final against Kildare, for instance. They owned the ball for the final ten minutes and they were never in danger in the closing stretch – eventually seeing it out by 0-20 to 1-9.
It was a similar story in the Leinster semi-final win over Meath. The Royals got the deficit down to three points approaching the 70-minute mark but Dublin didn’t panic and just picked off their passes.
They know how to win games and their scoring rate tends to drop these days as the final whistle approaches.
Stiffer Test for Mayo
What is also interesting is that not only have Dublin failed miserably to cover the handicap in any of their three outings in Leinster (average winning margin is seven), but the average total points in those games was just over 30.
Mayo have been racking up huge tallies in Connacht – 3-23 against Sligo, 5-20 against Leitrim and 2-14 against Galway – but they have yet to face a proper battle against a top side and do not expect them to go gung-ho against Dublin. James Horan is too cute for that.
*All odds correct at time of writing