Dragons require an emphatic victory over Edinburgh on Sunday to claim an unlikely spot in next season’s Champions Cup, however, history isn’t on their side.
Motivation Could Be Lacking for Visitors
Edinburgh head to the Principality Stadium with little to play for in this rearranged clash, sitting fifth in Pro14 Group B and 12 points adrift of Cardiff Blues.
The 2020-21 campaign fizzled out for the Scottish outfit after the turn of the year, losing four of their last seven outings ahead of Sunday’s 14:00 clash.
Richard Cockerill has made nine changes to his side, with six of them enforced due to injury, but fly-half Jaco van der Walt, who missed out on Scotland selection, is available.
They take to the field on Sunday as the 2/1 underdogs and motivation, or lack of more pertinently, could be a major factor with minds already thinking towards the off-season.
Dragons, meanwhile, can be backed at 20/59 and they do have more to play as they look to claim fourth spot in Group A.
Dragons’ season seriously derailed in December after embarking on an eight-match losing streak across all competitions.
Despite that torrid run, Dragons can still claim a spot in next season’s Champions Cup but they require victory by a margin of 45 points in the season finale.
The hosts make just two changes after beating Glasgow last Sunday with Wales forward Aaron Wainwright and Jack Dixon replacing Ollie Griffiths and Jamie Roberts respectively.
History Against the Hosts
Dragons’ target is clear if they are to secure an unlikely route into the Champions Cup at the expense of Glasgow.
However, earning a hugely dominant victory isn’t in their DNA, or it hasn’t been over recent times when turning out in the Pro14.
Dipping into the Over/Under Result market looks the best way to go ahead of the engagement in Cardiff, with under 48.5, which is available at 25/28, looking the most tempting outcome.
Each of the last eight editions of this fixture on Welsh soil have seen fewer than 48.5 points scored, while the two sides have combined for over 40 points on just three occasions during that sequence.
It’s also worth bearing in mind that Edinburgh have seriously struggled to score points this campaign and they boast the lowest tally of all 12 teams involved across the two groups.
Dragons to Edge Tight Contest
In an attempt to squeeze some further value out of this clash the winning margin market also jumps off the page.
Dragons’ last two home victories over Edinburgh have come by small margins, winning by six and eight in 2018 and 2016 respectively.
A Dragons win by 1-12 points can be backed at 7/5 and that has landed in each of their last five home Pro14 triumphs.
*All odds correct at time of writing.