The race for the play-off places in the NFL is entering the last lap and amongst a large group of teams bunched just behind the leading pack are the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints.
Both teams hold 7-7 records, leaving them on the cusp of the wild card places and knowing that one more loss will end their post-season ambitions.
The Dolphins head to the Big Easy riding a six-game winning streak and they could move into the number seven spot with another victory.
Miami are the 20/31 favourites for the win and are favoured by three points on the spread at 25/27, with the Saints a 27/20 chance to stay on the tails of the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers in the NFC wild card race.
New Orleans had started Week 16 as the favourites to make it three wins on the spin, but a crisis at quarterback has seen the line flipped in favour of the Dolphins.
Book Keen to Pen New Saints Chapter
The Saints lost first-choice quarterback Jameis Winston to a serious knee injury earlier in the season and joining him on the sidelines for this game are the second and third string QBs Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian, both of who have tested positive for Covid.
That has left the Saints with no choice but to start rookie Ian Book at quarterback against a Dolphins defence that enjoys blitzing and has given up the second fewest passing yards in the NFL over the last six weeks.
It looks a tall order for the fourth-round pick out of Notre Dame to step straight in and guide New Orleans to victory, particularly as the NFC South franchise are dealing with Covid-related issues elsewhere.
Key players on both sides of the ball, including linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Malcolm Jenkins, have been added to the Covid list, leaving the hosts short-handed for a crunch game.
Saints Suffer After Bucs Shutout
The Saints had been riding high before Covid struck, having defeated the reigning Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay on the road in Week 15.
It was a superb defensive effort that handed Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady the first shutout loss of his career, as New Orleans escaped Florida with a 9-0 win.
New Orleans will need a defence ranked third overall in the league to have just as strong an outing, while key playmaker Alvin Kamara is likely to be the main source of offence.
Running back Kamara had a quiet game against Tampa Bay, but is the team’s leading rusher and third highest receiver.
He could have some join running on a Miami defence that ranks 18th against the run and is 10/11 to score a touchdown at any time.
Tua Taking Flight
With the exception of Kamara, Miami’s defence should like their chances of keeping the Saints contained having allowed an average of 13.2 points per game since Week Nine.
After a disastrous start to the year which saw the Dolphins begin the season 1-7, the defence has rediscovered the type of form that carried them to ten wins last season.
The offence has steadily improved too with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa entering the week with the highest completion percentage in the league.
He’s shut down talk of being traded away and show good character when bouncing back from a poor first half against the Jets last time out to lead Miami to victory.
Waddle Return Aids Dolphins
Tua gets his favourite target, Jaylon Waddle, back this week, but he faces a tough night against an excellent Saints secondary and is 10/11 to have under 63.5 receiving yards.
Still, with Waddle back, Miami have far more pass catching options than the Saints, while Duke Johnson added an extra dimension to the offence with a strong rushing performance against the Jets.
With both the offence and defence trending in the right direction, Miami should have enough to inflict a third straight home defeat on a Saints side sorely lacking in firepower.
However, New Orleans’ fearsome defence can help the game remain relatively close, with Miami to win by 1-6 points at 29/10 holding some value.
*All odds correct at time of writing
