July is here, which means we’re right about halfway through the 2021 MLB season. It’s been a heck of a ride so far, with plenty of surprises and curveballs.
The midway point can be a great time to reassess the field and make some more futures bets.
With that in mind, let’s figure out who will be meeting in the Fall Classic by breaking down the field for the American League and National League. Starting with the NL:
No Point Dodging Los Angeles
It might be the boring safe pick, but in the National League I’ve got to take the Dodgers at 17/10. Los Angeles won the World Series last year, and there are few reasons to oppose them in 2021, mostly due to the lack of real competition.
The Braves, their closest rival last year, have been a big disappointment this season and are three games under .500. The 15/4 Mets have the third-lowest odds after the Dodgers and Padres, but they actually have a negative run differential.
New York are clearly lucky to be in first place and they’ve scored the fewest runs in all of MLB. If that’s the third best team in the NL, the Dodgers are in pretty good shape.
The Dodgers have the best run differential in the NL, and that’s despite the fact that they’ve dealt with a slew of injuries. Guys like Corey Seager will return eventually, which will only make this lineup more lethal. The rotation and bullpen are both filled with talented arms, and there really isn’t a weakness with this team.
Everyone agrees the Giants have been a fluke, and their hot start isn’t going to last forever. Kevin Gausman isn’t going to keep pitching like Cy Young much longer. San Diego have been streaky, and with Blake Snell being a disaster and Mike Clevinger out for the season, it’s unlikely they have what it takes this year.
If you want to wet your beak with a longshot option, the Braves make the most sense at 22/1. Atlanta were a game away from the World Series last year, and even though they have underachieved they are still just a handful of games back from first place in the NL East with plenty of baseball to be played.
Get In the Black With Blue Jays Bet
Looking at the AL now, there are two plays worth having. The first is another not very bold one, the Astros at 3/1. The second is the Blue Jays at 10/1.
Houston have just been leaps and bounds better than any other team in the American League this season. They have the best run differential, and it isn’t particularly close. The Astros are +127, and the next best team is the White Sox at +92.
Chicago are just about even with Houston for best odds in the AL, at 16/5, which doesn’t make sense. The White Sox are under .500 on the road this season, their offence hasn’t been nearly as good, and it’s not as if they have an elite starting rotation. Carlos Rodon is another starter who is way overachieving his career numbers.
The Yankees are clearly not as good as most observers thought they would be, and Tampa are starting to fade fast with a 4-10 record in their last 14.
Houston have had the best offence in the league all season, and each of the five starters in their rotation have an ERA of 3.65 or lower.
The Astros have led all of baseball in OPS for a while, and the only team chasing them is Toronto. The Blue Jays are a close second and, with Vlad Guerrero Jr. leading the way, they have a top-tier lineup.
They have done it mostly without George Springer, who they just got back from injury, so there’s still plenty of room for growth. If they can add a little pitching at the trade deadline, this team has as high a ceiling as any.
*All odds correct at time of writing