FROM watching last Thursday’s action, where are we from the opening two weeks?
We know that a few things which we will highlight:
- Most 180s in a game – highest 6 – by Gerwyn Price, Chris Dobey (contender) and Michael Smith last week
- Ten matches played – four draws!
- Games seeing over 11.5 legs – 5/10
- Highest overall 3 dart average – Rob Cross 103.08
Looking at the event markets into week three Michael van Gerwen is the clear 1/2 event winner favourite ahead of a huge 10/1 plus for the rest of the field.
The nine dart finish is still around the Ante-post price of a shade of odds on for Yes and evens for no with Skybet, so any NO backers interested could look at this.
Barneveld is as short as 1/8 NOT to take the top four, which in the words of betting guru Derek McGovern is almost mortgage material and chalks 13/8 with Betway to finish bottom of the league.
From what we have seen Barneveld against the field the 13/8 appeals in respect of how rusty he is, and how great the other players are. Last week on the 6-6 was on the virtue of Gerwyn Price buckling to get over the line and has not looked effective enough at winning a game yet.
Week Three: Profit/(Loss) +0.89
Looking at the fixtures, for accumulator backers, all the favourites winning on the night pays almost 19/1 (Price, Wright, Gerwen, Smith and Suljovic) with SportPesa. Backing against the grain on all the underdogs to win or draw pays over 33/1 with William Hill.
Price Vs Wade (Wade leads 6-3)
Wade has won all of the last three meetings dating back to 2017 in the World Series. The latest meeting was recently at the Masters, where Price was not on form in the game to lose out 10-7. Gerwyn has looked pretty solid in the first to weeks of competition. Price did buckle with the Glasgow crowd to give away a victory to Barney.
Throwing first, Wade Vs Price, with Gerwyn throwing first i would certainly edge the Welshman as the odds compilers do also. The game potentially has the distance in the game, which is 15/13 with Sportingbet for either to win 7-5 or the tie and 4/6 to see fewer than a dozen legs.
Lennon Vs Wright (Wright leads 3-0)
Steve Lennon has nothing to lose coming into this game and plays a Peter Wright, who has been slow off the mark. Snakebite was visually angry with some of his visits last week and by virtue of pressure managed to salvage a tie.
Lennon coming into this was only able to win one game last weekend in the pro-tour event and may be considered as BIG at 9/2 to turn the Scot over and 13/8 to not lose the game. If Wright plays like he begun last week punters will hesitate over taking the 8/15
MVG Vs Cross (MVG leads 11-3)
- MVG – 1/2 Paddy Power
- Draw – 9/2 Bet365
- Cross – 9/2 Ladbrokes
Cross has been one of the players under the radar from the first two weeks being the best overall average from his matches. MVG looks to make it three on the spin and is 1/2 to do so with many firms.
MVG has been in good nick since the World Championships, and has already begun his 2019 well on the floor circuit also. The longer the game goes, the fairer chance there is of seeing both players land three maximums or more apiece. Cross hit four last week, and two in week one. MVG has passed the line on both weeks at evens with Skybet is worth a dabble. Cross is 11/10 to hit a 100+ checkout, although the checkout line at 89.50 appeals more at 10/11 with the same firm.
Smith Vs Gurney (Smith leads – 6-3 (1 draw)
- Smith – 11/10 Boylesports
- Draw – 7/2 Spreadex
- Gurney – 21/10 Betfair
Michael Smith was gutted relinquishing a winning position last week and will want to make amends by beating Irishman Daryl Gurney this Thursday.
Smith was 4-1 ahead of Wright and had to rescue the draw in what was a match of two halves. Smith plays Gurney, who has not been firing on the maximums and is 10/11 with Skybet and BetVictor to see the major winner off where the maximum count is Smith 8-2. Gurney has been effective on the checkouts, which could make the game closer than the odds suggest.
Suljovic Vs Barneveld (Barney leads 6-3)
Mensur has got his toughest task out the way with MVG played. Suljovic was able to snatch a 6-6 draw the previous week, where the Gentle in the last weekend entered the pro-tour events making some reasonable progress.
Barney has won one match in 2019, and skipped the pro tour qualifiers last weekend, which in our view does make the Austrian the favourite to bag the points.
Although Barney has the head to head advantage the Dutchman has taken just one 100+ checkout, five maximums and combined average in the low 90’s. With Mensur in a better position sees the potential at getting a first victory on board.
Recommended Bets
- Cross – over 89.50 checkout – 10/11 Skybet 1pt
- Suljovic to beat Barneveld – 10/11 Betfair and BetVictor 1.5 pts
Ante Post Recommendations
- No 9 dart finish – 1/1 Skybet 3pts
- Barney – to finish bottom – 13/8 Betway 2pts
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