Slovakia blew Group E wide open with their win over Poland and are decent enough to give higher-ranked Sweden a test
Slovakia had hardly been a warm order against Poland in their Group E opener but they completely nullified Robert Lewandowski, running out 2-1 winners to give themselves an outstanding chance of reaching the last 16.
Sweden swap Seville for St Petersburg and have to completely change their mindset following their own backs-to-the-wall defiance against the Spaniards.
It paid off, in as much as they came away from a game in which they had just 15 percent possession with a point courtesy of a 0-0 draw. But they’ll have earmarked Slovakia as a must-win showdown and will be accordingly more positive.
The Swedes hope Juventus winger Dejan Kulusevski is fit after isolation following a positive Covid test. The Slovaks must decide whether talisman Marek Hamsik, 34 next month, can do two starts in four days.
Sweden Stay Solid in Betting Despite Seville Slog
The Swedes won a point but few admirers for their performance in Seville, a bus-parking effort of extraordinary discipline.
But it also didn’t alter views on this game – Janne Andersson’s men had been a shade of odds-on for this fixture before the finals and still are 9/10 shots.
Snipers will say Slovakia were fortunate against Poland, who played the last half hour and more with 10 men, yet the reality is they had been the better team when it was 11 versus 11 and deserved their win. Despite that, they remain a 62/17 outsider.
Lack Of Goal Potential Points to Draw
Of the three 90-minute options, it’s the draw at 40/17 which looks the pick of them for several reasons.
First, Slovakia are not the mugs perhaps many had suggested going into the finals and boast a seriously strong spine which held up well against the Poles.
Second, Sweden have to change mindset, flick a switch from ultra-negative to positive almost overnight, and that’s not always an easy thing to do. Plus it presumes they have the players to do it and the jury’s definitely still out on that one.
And third, are we really convinced Sweden are better than Slovakia anyway, or at least by the margin the prices imply? I’m not so sure.
Slovakia managed the closing stages against Poland and are now in a position where they don’t need to be taking risks. And they do have a knack of drawing games – they’ve had stalemates in three of their last six.
Back The Mak to Crack The Swedes
Slovakia’s two warm-up games – low-scoring draws against Bulgaria and Austria – gave us an insight that Stefan Tarkovic’s defensive planning was starting to work.
And the way the mightily impressive Milan Skriniar and colleagues stifled Robert Lewandowski on Monday was also worthy of praise.
It’s doubtful Sweden will offer any more potency than the Poles – they are still a very defensively-minded side. Under 2.5 goals is 3/5 while both teams to score is 11/10.
The Swedish front two of Alexander Isak and Marcus Berg head the first-scorer betting list but take a look instead at Robert Mak at 11/1. The Ferencvaros man was a constant thorn in the Polish defence’s side, instrumental in the build-up to his side’s opener, and with 14 goals for his country knows his way to goal.
*All odds correct at time of writing