Slowly but surely, the English Championship is entering the home stretch. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the 37th matchday (of a total of 46) is on the agenda. Two teams will meet at the Vitality Stadium whose goal is to return to the English Premier League. On Tuesday at 20:45 the match between Bournemouth and Swansea will kick off.
Although promotion is the big goal for both teams, the starting situation before the direct duel could not be more different. The Cherries from Bournemouth have had huge problems lately and have been bumped down the table, while the visitors from Wales are swimming on a wave of success.
For Bournemouth it is already a kind of “last chance” in the fight for a play-off place, after all the gap is already five points. The Welsh guests, on the other hand, are currently only out of the direct promotion places because of their worse goal difference compared to Watford. Although the visitors definitely have the advantage in terms of form, the best bookmakers in the Bournemouth vs Swansea match rate the hosts as the clear favourites according to the current betting odds.
Prediction & Live Odds for Bournemouth vs. Swansea 16/03/2021
Another defeat could well mean the end of the Cherries’ Premier League dreams, while the visitors could land a big point in the fight for direct promotion. As the Championship is generally very balanced, predictions on the 1X2 market are often very difficult. In any case, there is no value in betting on a home win between Bournemouth and Swansea.
The current form of the home side clearly speaks against this bet and maximum betting odds of 2.20 are clearly too low. Qualitatively, both teams are on a similar level and since the guests have a good away record (9-4-4), the tip on the Draw No Bet market in favour of the guests . In the event of a draw, there is money back, otherwise a 2.50 for a Swansea triumph is tempting with this bet. With the cashback protection, a very lucrative betting opportunity.
Bournemouth – Statistics & Current Form
Last season’s relegation ended Eddie Howe’s tenure with the Cherries after almost eight years. His previous co-coach, Jason Tindall, was supposed to bring about a direct return to the English top flight. For a long time, things went according to plan for the Cherries, but at the beginning of 2021, the team slid into a crisis.
Tindall was relieved of his duties after a 3-1 defeat to Reading at the end of January and ex-professional Jonathan Woodgate took over on an interim basis until the end of the season. For the 2021/22 season, the club hopes to sign Thierry Henry.
Home record gives Cherries hope
Woodgate has now been on the sidelines for ten Championship games and has a completely even 4-2-4 record. Last weekend’s defeat in particular was extremely bitter, as the 3-2 loss to Barnsley FC was also a direct clash. As a result of the defeat against Ismael’s team, Bournemouth are now five points behind sixth-placed Barnsley.
Bournemouth were 2-1 up at half-time, but conceded two more goals and suffered their fifth defeat in their 18th home game. However, this compares to ten wins in 18 games, which means sixth place in the home table. The home statistics are quite respectable and are therefore an argument why the prediction on a win for the hosts is considered the most likely outcome for Bournemouth vs Swansea. However, there is no value to be found in the current betting odds.
Eight nil at the Vitality Stadium
The second-tier Championship is generally a league where a lot of football is fought and very little football is played. Commitment and passion are two existential virtues and playing class is only secondary. Accordingly, many games are hard-fought and end extremely close. The matches are not a feast for the eyes for friends of offensive football.
Generally, only 40 % of the matches this season end with a successful bet on the over 2.5. Bournemouth is slightly above the league average with 44 % (16 of 36). However, betting on the Under 2.5 seems promising for Bournemouth against Swansea on Tuesday night. Goalkeeper Asmir Begovic has kept a clean sheet in eight of the 18 home games this season. A goal festival, like at the weekend, is not necessarily to be expected.
Predicted Bournemouth line-up:
Begovic – Kelly, Carter-Vickers, Cook, Smith – Pearson, Lerma – Danjuma, Solange, Stanislas – Long
Swansea – Statistics & Current Form
The Welsh representatives are only three goals behind Watford FC in third place in the current Championship table. However, unlike the Hornets from London, Swansea have played one game less. Steve Cooper’s side still have a second leg to play against second-bottom Sheffield Wednesday. In the battle for direct promotion (third to sixth place play the third promoted team in the play-offs), the “Swans” currently have a small advantage on their side.
Best defence in the league
A big plus for Swansea is definitely their convincing defence. Goalkeeper Freddie Woodman (on loan from Newcastle United) played 34 of the 35 possible games in 2020/21 and kept his box clean no less than 18 times (!). With a total of only 25 goals conceded, the Welsh have the best defence in the league. These figures are definitely further strong arguments that underline the prediction of 2.5 for Bournemouth vs Swansea.
Especially in away games, Swansea only average 2.18 goals per game and only four of the 17 visiting appearances ended with an Over 2.5. Nevertheless, odds around 1.70 can be found in the AFT odds comparison for an Under 2.5.
Ten points from the last four games
The hosts from Bournemouth have had to cope with a number of setbacks recently, but the Welsh representatives are in very strong form and have collected ten points from a possible twelve in their last four league games. Only in the duel with Blackburn Rovers did Cooper’s team lose a point, the other three games were won by a goal margin (2:1, 2:1, 1:0).
In total, Swansea won ten of their 20 league victories by a one-goal margin, while the ten other victories were each by a two-goal margin. The only time Swansea have scored more than two goals this season was in their 3-1 win over Rotherham at the end of January.
Predicted Swansea line-up:
Woodman – Bennett, Latibeaudiere, Naughton – Manning, Smith, Grimes, Roberts – Hourihane, Dhanda – Ayew