Will BVB make it to the quarter-finals of the top flight?
For Borussia Dortmund, it’s all about a place in the quarter-finals of the Champions League on Tuesday evening. The last time BVB reached the last eight was in 2016/2017 under Thomas Tuchel. The odds offered by the best bookmakers between Dortmund and Sevilla confirm that the Black and Yellows’ chances of advancing are anything but great. On the To-Qualify market, the top odds do not even reach 1.15.
One of the reasons for this assessment is that the guests from Andalusia have never actually been able to advance to the next round in the European Cup after losing the first leg. In the first match three weeks ago, Borussia somewhat surprisingly got the upper hand with a 3:2 win at Nervionenses and thus gained an excellent starting position. Even a 0:1 or a 1:2 defeat in their own stadium would be enough to advance to the quarter-finals.
Logically, however, the team of coach Edin Terzic has a completely different ambition and wants to leave no doubt from the start as to who will join the elite circle of the eight remaining clubs in the most important European club competition. The home side has a good international home record, which will be discussed in more detail in the following analysis.
In addition, the fact that coach Julen Lopetegui’s team fell into a bit of a hole after the aforementioned first-leg defeat and has lost three of its last four matches in the competition must be taken into account when making a prediction between Dortmund and Sevilla. Nevertheless, the reigning Europa League winners will naturally leave no stone unturned and seek their salvation on the offensive.
Prediction & Live Odds for Borussia Dortmund vs Sevilla 09/03/2021
BVB will be the first of four remaining German clubs to advance to the quarter-finals of the Champions League on Tuesday evening. Ahead of the second leg between Dortmund and Sevilla, the betting odds not only on the “to-qualify” but also on the three-way market are swinging in the direction of the Bundesliga side, who won the first leg in Spain 3-2 and are pushing into the last eight of the top flight for the first time since 2016/17.
However, due to injuries, the recent defeat against FC Bayern, and the fact that the Black and Yellows are already playing their fifth competitive match in 18 days, we would refrain from betting on the home win. The odds on excess goals between Dortmund and Sevilla are more interesting.
In the past five Champions League matches involving Lopetegui’s team, more than 20 goals have been scored, i.e. an average of more than four per match. Borussia have also been convincing offensively so far this CL season, scoring 15 goals. Coupled with the assumption that the Andalusians will have to run regardless of losses, there is a lot to be said for many goals.
Therefore, we decide to bet on the over 2.5 ✅ between BVB and Sevilla – see the live odds for this market below:
Dortmund – Statistics & Current Form
After winning four games in a row, Borussia Dortmund suffered another setback last weekend. Although the Black and Yellows started the top match at FC Bayern very well and were already in the lead after ten minutes thanks to two goals by Haaland, only the record champions played afterwards. The logical consequence was a 4-2 defeat, which was not undeserved, and which saw BVB drop back to sixth place in the Bundesliga table.
However, before the next match at home against Hertha Berlin next Saturday, BVB must first secure their place in the quarter-finals of the Champions League.
This is supported by the fact that Borussia have not lost at home in the Champions League for seven matches now. Looking back at the past eleven matches at home in Europe’s most important club competition, BVB have only lost one – against eventual finalists Tottenham in 2018/19.
Dortmund must not let themselves be pushed to the back of the pack
From the point of view of Edin Terzic’s team, who could become only the fourth German coach after Heynckes, Toppmöller and Flick to win his first two Champions League games in charge, it will be important to be active going forward and not to concentrate exclusively on defending.
But since it is in the DNA of the club and the coaching team to remain active anyway, we are not worried about this. At the same time, however, this increases the likelihood that a bet on three or more goals in the course of the game will pay off on Tuesday evening between Dortmund and Sevilla.
Offensively, of course, in the absence of the injured Sancho and Reyna, hopes will once again rest on the broad shoulders of Haaland, who has an impressive 18 goals in his 13 Champions League games. In the last three matches in this competition, the Norwegian has always scored a brace. In addition to the aforementioned Sancho and Reyna, Witsel, Akanji, Schmelzer and possibly Guerreiro are also unavailable.
Dortmund’s most probable line-up:
Hitz; Morey, Can, Hummels, Guerreiro; Delaney, Bellingham, Dahoud; Reus, Hazard; Haaland
Sevilla – Statistics & current form
Sevilla Fútbol Club have their backs to the wall ahead of the second leg at Signal Iduna Park. As already indicated in the introduction, the Andalusians have never managed to advance to the next round after a defeat in the first leg. Admittedly, the reigning Europa League champions have only lost three such first legs in their long international history, the last being against FC Bayern in 2017/18.
Nervionenses coach Julen Lopetegui’s experience against German clubs is limited to a single encounter with the record champions, which was lost 1:6 at the Allianz Arena in 2014/15. At that time, the former Spanish national coach was still in the service of FC Porto. In general, Blanquirrojos’ record against representatives from the Bundesliga is not particularly positive. Three of the four matches they played in Europe were lost.
Sevilla’s form leaves much to be desired
To make matters worse for the White and Reds, the team is also experiencing a slump at national level after the 2:3 defeat around three weeks ago. The Sevillistas were eliminated in the Copa del Rey semi-finals despite a 2-0 first-leg win against FC Barcelona, and in La Liga they recently suffered two heavy defeats against the Catalans and the underdogs from Elche.
However, these disappointing results will not stop the Lopetegui eleven from starting confidently and courageously at Borussia. In the past five Champions League games alone, Ocampos and Co. have scored ten goals. However, they also conceded eleven goals. A bet of over 2.5 would always have been crowned with success, which in turn confirms our Dortmund vs. Sevilla prediction for a goal or two on Tuesday evening. With the exception of Aleix Vidal, all players are on board.
Predicted Sevilla line-up:
Bounou; Navas, Kounde, Carlos, Acuna; Jordan, Fernando, Rakitic; Suso, En-Nesyri, Ocampos