We are looking forward to the Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday evening. The decisive second leg of the Champions League quarter-final between Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City will take place there from 21:00. According to the odds, the Premier League leaders hold all the trump cards and are not only favourites to progress, but are also favourites going into the second match.
However, it became clear just over a week ago that the Citizens should by no means underestimate BVB. At the Etihad Stadium, the Black and Yellows stood up to the title favourites very well and only lost 2-1 after conceding a late goal. It will be interesting to see whether the Bundesliga side can put in another disciplined and concentrated performance or whether Pep Guardiola’s men are able to step up a gear.
The fact that the Terzic team can still hope for a sensation is underlined by the statistic that “only” twelve of the 27 clubs that won the first leg 2-1 at home have gone through to the next round in the history of the top flight. Nevertheless, between Dortmund and Manchester City, it is not advisable to predict BVB’s progression to the semi-finals.
Prediction & Live Odds for Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester City 14/04/2021
Dortmund has a realistic chance of reaching the semi-finals on Wednesday evening. Admittedly, from the Bundesliga team’s point of view, it will take an absolutely great day. Borussia absolutely must win the second leg at home against the Citizens and concede no more than one goal to at least be allowed to go into extra time at 2-1.
If we believe the betting odds before the kick-off at Signal Iduna Park between Dortmund and Manchester City, however, then all the advantages lie with the English, who are probably the best team in Europe at the moment and can possibly shift up a gear or two compared to the first leg. Especially because Guardiola can control the workload much better than his counterpart Edin Terzic, who has to call up (almost) the same professionals every three days.
We believe, therefore, that the English Premier League leaders will put in a confident and focused performance. This should ultimately be enough not only to advance, but also to win away. In our eyes, it is not even out of the question that the Sky Blues will win by zero. After all, keeper Ederson has not conceded a single goal in the last four Champions League games.
On balance, however, we opt for the easy win for Manchester City, which is rewarded with a solid 1.67 at bookmakers we recommend. ✅
Dortmund – Statistics & Current Form
BVB are absolutely delighted with the team’s reaction after their poor performance in the landmark 2-1 defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt about a week and a half ago. A few days later, the Black and Yellows were convincing all along the line in the quarter-final first leg at Manchester City, followed by a 3-2 win in a complicated away match at VfB Stuttgart at the weekend.
While the form curve is accordingly pointing upwards and self-confidence has also returned, the most recent two matches also cost a lot of substance. Especially considering that coach Edin Terzic refrained from making any major changes to his starting eleven and that the majority of the players who recently felt the confidence of the future Rose assistant will be called upon again on Wednesday. The issue of fatigue should therefore definitely be taken into account when predicting the outcome of the match between Dortmund and Manchester City.
Can BVB make the second leg exciting?
A further complicating factor for the underdogs is the fact that BVB have lost six of their seven first legs in the Champions League. Only in 2016/2017 did they manage to turn around the round of 16 against Benfica Lisbon. The fact that the last two European Cup home games were lost against English clubs does not increase the likelihood of a surprise coup either.
Last but not least, to add a little subjectivity, we are sceptical whether the Black and Yellows, who have not necessarily been able to convince with consistency, mentality and aggressiveness in the duels this season, will get exactly these qualities on the pitch again for a third time in a row. Moreover, we can’t shake off the feeling that Terzic’s team was at its peak in the first leg, while the Citizens can, by necessity, go one or two steps further.
It would certainly do Borussia good if Jadon Sancho could make his comeback against his former club. Although the young Englishman is on the road to recovery and has already resumed training, he will probably not be able to play on Wednesday. Zagadou, Schmelzer, Witsel and youngster Moukoko are also unavailable.
Dortmund’s probable line-up:
Hitz – Guerreiro, Hummels, Akanji, Morey – Dahoud, Bellingham, Can – Reus, Haaland, Knauff
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
If we look at the odds for the overall victory in the top flight before the quarter-final second leg between Dortmund and Manchester City, the Citizens are still the hottest contenders for the trophy. In the easy-to-use Bet365 app, not even triple the stake would be paid out at the moment should the Englishmen ultimately win Europe’s most important club competition for the first time.
Before a potential semi-final against the defending champions from Munich or Paris St. Germain can be prepared, however, the Sky Blues must first complete the obligatory task at Signal Iduna Park. One statistic in ManCity’s favour is that they have reached the next round in 13 of the 15 international matches in which they have won the first leg.
Guardiola can rely on a fit squad
On a more positive note, keeper Ederson has not conceded a goal in his last four Champions League away games. Pep Guardiola also seems to be slowly getting to grips with his “Germany phobia”, because after no less than three cross-competition defeats from his first five games against clubs from the Bundesliga, the Catalan is now unbeaten in seven such matches (four wins, three draws). If it stays that way, a place in the semi-finals is fixed.
It can also be seen as an advantage that Guardiola was able to spare his key players at the weekend. Gündogan, Foden, Rodri, Walker, de Bruyne and Mahrez did not play at all or only briefly in the 2-1 home defeat to Leeds United, which was tolerable given the large lead in the Premier League table. The former Bayern coach can therefore field his best eleven and will presumably provide it with more solutions than in the first leg.
Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Ederson – Cancelo, Dias, Stones, Walker – Gündogan, Rodri, De Bruyne – Foden, Silva (Aguero), Mahrez