The way the 2021 season has gone, it almost seemed pre-destined that Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton’s title battle would go down to the wire.
Formula 1 fans would have felt short-changed had the most intense and absorbing season in years – perhaps ever – been decided before reaching the finale in Abu Dhabi. But even the most optimistic enthusiast couldn’t have envisaged that the two championship combatants would line up at Yas Marina tied on points in a winner-takes-all showdown.
Mixed Signals From Course Form
Yas Marina has traditionally been a strong track for Mercedes, however, Verstappen was in a class of his own in the twilight race last season.
To further muddy the waters, the circuit layout has been quite heavily revised for this season. Some of the slower, more fiddly sections have been removed, making the lap flow better and, hopefully, improving the racing at a track that has seen some truly forgettable final acts of F1 seasons over the years.
Bottas Well-Placed To Pick Up The Pieces
Hamilton’s win in Saudi Arabia last weekend was his third straight victory – the first time all season the seven-time champ has put together a run of three in a row.
Clearly the impetus is with the Briton, and he is 4/9 for a race victory that would bring with it a record eighth world championship.
Verstappen – already nine times a winner himself this year – is 11/5 to take the top step in Abu Dhabi.
But one of the most enthralling features of this season has been that the on-track battles between Verstappen and Hamilton have been as close as their fight in the standings. An incredible 11 of the 21 races staged have seen one of them overtake the other, while there have been three collisions, with varying outcomes.
Verstappen knows that if neither he nor Hamilton score points in Abu Dhabi then he will be champion – stewards enquiries permitting – so expect no quarter to be given on Sunday.
If there is another coming together, or if they get too absorbed in each others’ games, then it could let someone else in, and Bottas looks the most likely beneficiary.
The Finn, in his 101st and last race for Mercedes, has followed Verstappen and Hamilton home in third seven times this season and could be the value call at 13/1.
Norris Due A Lucky Break
Lando Norris sat third in the standings for much of the early part of the season, but he is in danger of dropping out of the top six if his luck doesn’t change in Abu Dhabi.
Since finishing second to his teammate Daniel Ricciardo in Italy, the Briton has suffered a litany of misfortune including being robbed of certain victory in Russia when the heavens opened in the dying laps.
There is much more pace in his McLaren than the formbook suggests and Norris could be worth a bet at 23/4 for a fifth podium finish of the season.
*All odds correct at time of writing.