Week 11 of the season is here, and it’s thanksgiving week so keep your eye open for the Thursday games, the late, late one is the key to the slate as the Steelers take on the Ravens, it will wrap up the AFC North for the Steelers or keep the Ravens in the hunt for the division. Houston v Detroit is the 6pm, Washington v Dallas 2130 and Steelers v Ravens 1:20am for us in the UK. I’ll be staying away from the Steelers spread because of their big game upcoming.
Anyways, Sunday night, some good televised games, the NFC South clash between the Taysom Hill Saints and the Atlanta Falcons, followed by the Packers @ Indy, and Titans v Ravens probably the pick of the non-televised games.
Spread
I really don’t want to take the Browns again but it’s dropped below the 3 and is more tempting now. Even Nick Chubb stepping out of bounds on the 1 wouldn’t have beaten the 3 point spread last week, I’m still annoyed by that passage of play. The Ravens v Titans is tempting, I don’t rate the AFC South and the Ravens should bounce back but Derrick Henry has a good matchup against a poor run D so I’m off that. I like my Bengals getting points against an NFC East team, that division is terrible and the Bengals aren’t bad away from their own division but the pass rush of Washington puts me off there.
So I’ll go for the Packers to cover against the Colts. I’m not convinced the spread is the right way here, I’d probably have the Packers as slight favourites. They’re getting players back on offense with Aaron Jones a week fitter, Allen Lazard expected back albeit on a snap count tonight and Davante Adams the best WR in the league this year. Aaron Rodgers in a dome should be a good thing, he’s had 7 TDs in 3 games vs the Colts in his career, and got MVS going last week with 149 and 2 TDs for him.
The Colts have a highly ranked defense but haven’t really played anyone this season, I don’t rate them much on offense the run game is struggling, although I do like Michael Pittman who is playing well back from injury and adds some much-needed talent at WR for them and he gets a good matchup with Jaire Alexander is out with concussion as expected.
Green Bay Packers +1.5 @ 1.90 (365)
Player prop
I think I’m going large on one prop this week. It seems to me that it should be a much higher line – JD McKissic o4.5 receptions for the Washington football team. They’re starting Alex Smith who leads the league in yards over the last couple of weeks, he’s target McKissic an absurd 29 times in those two games, with 16 receptions for him, 9 and 7. He goes up against a Bengals team who are beaten up on defense. He’s clearly the release ball for the team and while the Bengals LBs are better than most think I doubt they’ll shut him down.
A few others I like, although all a fairly short prices, Mike Davis o3.5 recs (Panthers), Goedert o3.5 recs, Hurst o3.5 recs, Deshaun Watson o29.5 rush yards and Justin Herbert o1.5 passing TDs – shortest of them all at 1.52 he’s had at least 2 in his last 5 games.
TD Scorer
I should probably go for Nick Chubb again this week, he’s had 5 TDs in 3 games at home for them this season including his one last week and is still nearly even, 10/11 for him to score anytime and worth a shout at 6/1 to score first. Todd Gurley is 11/10 anytime, he leads the league in rushing TDs so getting over evens is a good price for him. D’Onta Foreman scored for the Titans last time out, he’s 14/1 anytime on PP/Betfair which is probably worth a nibble. Durham Smythe for the Dolphins has 2 in 3 games with Tua at QB, he’s 10/1 on 365.
I’ll go for Terry McLaurin anytime at 6/4 against the Bengals. He’s had 7+ receptions, 90+ yards and a TD in each of their last 2 home games and should have a good matchup tonight against a battered up Bengals defense who give up a lot of yards to WRs.
Summary
It’s been a rough few weeks so I’ll stick to just the three bets.
- Packers +1.5
- McKissic o4.5 receptions
- Terry McLaurin anytime TD
Good luck this week folks, enjoy the games. Check out Touchdown Tips for previews on all games.
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