Happy Turkey Day Y’all. It might not mean a lot for us over this side of the pond, but the extra football on show is always worth a bit of our attention! As always we’ve got the Lions hosting the early game and the Cowboys in the dinner-time game and then we finish off with an NFC West clash between the 49ers and Seahawks.
This year though we’ve got the added “bonus”? of a Black Friday game with the Dolphins taking on the Tim Boyle Jets on Friday at a lovely 8pm kick off time for us in the the UK.
I have set up a DraftKings contest for the game if you partake in that kind of thing- $5 entry and the top 3 get paid. https://www.draftkings.co.uk/contest/draftteam/154836508
Packers +8 @ Lions: 47
The 4-6 Packers go over to the NFC North-elect Champions and divisional rivals the Lions as a little over a TD underdog on a line which has taken money on the Lions all week having opened up around the 7. The Lions have played more games on Thanksgiving than any other team but it’s not helped them too much as they come into this one with a 37-44-2 record and are 6-17 since 2000, losing their last 6 straight.
Most of what the Lions do is on the back of one of the best offensive lines in the league, especially in run-blocking where David Montgomery and Jamhyr Gibbs have formed a great 1-2 duo on the ground. It looks like they tend to take a drive each although Monty does still tend to get the goal-line work when they need a score. Both found the endzone last week and against a bottom 5 Packers run defense I think there’s a good chance of that again this week. Probably around 3/1 for both of them to score.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been fantastic in the passing game once more and should be around 7 or 8 receptions tonight. Rookie TE Sam LaPorta will likely be second in targets with the like of Josh Reynolds, Jameson Williams and Kaliff Raymond adding in a bit. Williams has only had a max of 2 targets but they have praised his work-rate recently so may get a bit more involved.
The Packers are without Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon has been on the injury report this week too so it’s not ideal for a team who has been trying to limit their inexperienced QBs work. Jordan Love has had an up-and-down season, he started off well, stuttered a little but has arguably been in the best form of his year in recent weeks and he’s been spreading the ball around well. I’m fairly sure Dillon plays and will be fine, but it’s note-worthy.
He will be without TE Luke Musgrave who suffered a lacerated kidney last week so the young WR corps led by Romeo Doubs will have to step up once more. Christian Watson was a favoured target of Rodgers but looks to be down at 4 or 5 now with Jalin Reed and Dontayvion Wicks getting more looks recently.
I do think the Lions win and favourites usually do well on Thanksgiving but it’s ticked up over a TD now and that puts me off backing it. I do like the over though, and PaddyPower has a boost to 7/4 for both teams to score 20 points which looks good. I’ll be taking Sam LaPorta to score and Jamhyr Gibbs longest rush o13.5 yards, a line he’s topped in each of his last 4 games.
Commanders +13.5 @ Cowboys: 48.5
The line on this game has grown overnight as well, up from 12 on Wednesday to nearly 2 TDs now as America wakes up on Thanksgiving morning, and it’s probably the right move as the Commanders have 4 wins on the season after an easy schedule and the Cowboys have won all 4 home games this year by over 20 points PER GAME, the Cowboys are 2-3 in the last 5 Thanksgiving games though.
QB Sam Howell leads the league in passing yards, which probably highlights an issue of the Commanders generally trailing, but for the most part he’s done well this year. He did have a stinker last week where the team as a whole turned the ball over to the terrible Giants 6 times. Although he did come back well and almost led them to the win. It doesn’t help that he’s the most sacked QB in the league and will be facing one of the most potent pass-rushes in this game.
The ball is spread around the pass-catching group well and they should have Curtis Samuel after he was kicked out of the game at the weekend. Terry McLaurin is a stud but hasn’t hit 100 yards in a game this season, he may be able to work on the ball-hawking Taron Bland who will go for picks. Jahan Dotson has a few TDs and TE Logan Thomas generally gets 5-8 targets per game and will be around 4-5 receptions regardless of opponent.
Dak Prescott is playing some of the best football he has in recent years and the offense is ticking as a result of it. A good game here and the chatter around MVP I’ve been hearing this week will intensify, but regular season and playing lesser teams comes easy to the Cowboys and it likely will again this time around.
CeeDee Lamb is looking like one of the top 3 WRs in the league having had 500+ yards and 4 TDs in their last 4 games, although it was a quieter one last weekend. The Commanders secondary probably won’t be able to slow him down here. Rookie TE Jake Ferguson seems like he’s the second target for Dak and the likes of Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup have shown up in recent weeks as well. It’s usually worth having a look at the price on Schoonmaker to score, but he got one last week and it’s rarely two in a row for the young TE.
The running game has struggled with Tony Pollard wearing down through the season but Rico Dowdle has stepped in well when needed and they are still able to move the ball on the ground.
The defense has been fantastic and Micah Parsons is one of the most fun players in the league to watch, they will get pressure and with Taron Bland stepping up at CB with 4 pick-sixes this year, they may well generate a few more turnovers tonight.
I have to lean to the Commies keeping it closer than 2 TD’s but I can understand why it’s going that way with how dominant the Cowboys have been at home. CeeDee Lamb to score at 21/20 (WilliamHill) is decent enough, anything above even seems fine.
49ers -7 @ Seahawks: 44
The wildcard of Thanksgiving gives us an NFC West clash as the 49ers travel up to Seattle to take on a beaten up Seahawks team. The road team are 7-3 and have bounced back now they’re healthy after 3 losses in a row while the Seahawks are looking to keep up their chase for a wildcard spot after a disappointing loss to the Rams last week.
Brock Purdy has been imperious in recent weeks with the highest 2-game QBR in history including a rare perfect passer-rating last weekend with another 3 TD game last weekend. I’ll be honest, I don’t think they’ll reach the Super Bowl with him, but it’s hard to deny he’s been very good in the system with Trent Williams back to health at LT.
Deebo Samuel has returned and helped the offense in his gadget role and Brandon Aiyuk has the highest yards per reception in the league this year having had to pick up a lot of the slack with Deebo out. George Kittle has shown his ability in blocking and receiving and Jauan Jennings will pop up occasionally as well.
It does help having the best running back in the league in the backfield and after a ZERO TD week against the Jags, Christian McCaffrey was back on the scoreboard last weekend with a receiving TD to start a new streak.
The 49ers defense has improved even more with the addition of Chase Young to the pass rush so while the secondary has got a little weaker, opponents passing games have struggled in general.
The Seahawks had Geno Smith leave the game for some time at the weekend with Drew Lock coming in, he did re-appear for the final drive which should have won them the game but his status for this one is officially questionable. I do think it will be Geno but an elbow injury against this pass-rush won’t be fun for him.
They will be without Kenneth Walker on the ground so Zach Charbonnet will need to step up after being drafted highly in April. He got a lot of the carries last week but didn’t do a whole lot with them so it will be interesting to see how he does knowing that he’s going to be the starter.
The passing game should be better than it is, DK Metcalf is nursing toe and rib injuries but can dominate when on his game, Tyler Lockett is the same guy he always is and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been good in recent weeks as well. I like JSN to go over his yards tonight.
49ers should win and I’d say they should cover against a beaten up Seahawks, but the NFC West is weird. Carroll has a half-decent record vs. Shanahan, although recent games have evened that up to an extent. Jaxon Smith-Njigba o38.5 receiving yards will be my bet on this game.
I’ll add something on the Black Friday game in the post while recovering on my booked day off tomorrow 👌
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