First up I’ll apologise for a bit of a shocker from me last week, the Texans faltered and gave the Panthers their first win of the season, I am tempted to fade Carolina again last week but I’ll consider that while I’m writing… The Cowboys and Rams flew over their total for my one win of the weekend as Dallas stomped on their opponent on both sides of the ball coming off their bye week.
I’m beginning to think that Odell Beckham is just another guy now and apparently not a very good one as he didn’t catch a ball against a poor Cardinals defense last week, Gus Edwards with the 3 rushing TDs hogging all the scores there, while Rhamondre Stevenson caught 2 of 4 for 11 yards, I think that was the correct bet still, if he’d caught all 4 he’d have topped 18.5 as the Patriots trailed but that’s how the cookie crumbles.
A high and low weekend in prospect in the NFL this week with a whole lot of backup QBs taking the field on the bottom end of things, but the AFC games bookending the Sunday should prove to be thrillers and the NFC East clash between the Cowboys and Eagles will go a long way to deciding whether the Eagles retain the division for the first time in nearly two decades or if the sea-saw between the two continues.
As always we’ll head to the European match first up as the Chiefs “host” the Dolphins in Frankfurt.
Dolphins +1.5 @ Chiefs: 51
The bookies are expecting a thriller with the highest total of the weekend slate in this game, I’m not so sure though. Teams travelling over to Europe tend to start slow and while both teams are capable of putting up points, the Dolphins have been poor against good teams and the Chiefs defense has been their strongest area so far this season.
Both teams come in at 6-2 at the top of the conference, the Dolphins have killed all the below average teams they’ve faced but lost quite easily to the two good teams (the Bills and Eagles) while the Chiefs will look to excuse their loss to the Broncos with Mahomes illness last weekend.
The Dolphins look healthy from last week meaning Raheem Mostert continues his role as the main man in the run game with Jeff Wilson working in on 3rd downs for them. They have moved the ball well all year with Tua Tagovailoa getting the ball out quicker than any other QB in the league, largely to Tyreek Hill who faces his former team looking to make his mark with his electric pace as he has all season. If anyone knows how to slow the Cheetah though it should be the Chiefs so it could be a bigger game for Jaylen Waddle who looks healthier than he has for most of the season coming into this one. Behind these two though it’s very shallow in the passing game which could prove an issue.
The Chiefs aren’t exactly littered with studs on offense either but Mahomes and Kelce prove to be more than enough for most opponents. Mahomes is the best I’ve ever watched and continues to create something from nothing on scrambles on a weekly basis. He’ll hit the odd deep-shot to MVS or Hardman or Kadarius Toney, or Skyy Moore or one of the other distinctly average pass-catchers he’s got to target but this offense is mostly Travis Kelce and most teams still don’t seem to have figured how to stop him. In fairness I do like Rashee Rice who looks like he’s increasingly involved in the offense as the expense of the rest of the WRs. Their run game is average but does enough to distract from Mahomes.
The Chiefs defense has been the better of the two units on that side of the ball this year, but the return of Jalen Ramsey last week looked like it could be well-timed to strengthen up a bottom-1o Dolphins D.
I like the Chiefs to win and cover, but the Dolphins have been beaten by teams with good pass-rush, the Chiefs don’t have that as they rely on coverage sacks more than genuine pressure, if Tua is able to get the ball out quickly still then he could do some damage. Having said that I am leaning to the under for the game, but more specifically u10 1st quarter points, and then maybe a look at the over in-play as the teams settle into the second half. Jeff Wilson o6.5 receiving yards – 10/11 (Bet365) my one look on props, he’ll get 3rd down work. I can’t ignore 11/10 on Raheem Mostert anytime (WilliamHill) he’s scoring every week so I can’t turn down plus money on him.
Best Spread – Falcons -4 vs. Vikings
There’s a lot of variable taking the field for teams this week with so many injuries to QB‘s which is scaring me away from a lot of spreads. I can’t take the Browns covering 13 points, the Giants and Raiders will be intriguing if not entertaining in the late window with Daniel Jones expected back to face Aiden O’Connell.
I’ll plump for the Falcons covering 4 points at home to Jaren Hall and the Vikings. Both teams will have different starting QBs this week with Hall making his debut after Kirk Cousins season finished with an Achilles injury last week, but the change for the Falcons could make them stronger. Taylor Heinicke is mobile enough that the Falcons can run with him still, but he should make the costly mistakes Ridder has made so far this season and if they keep the ball safe then Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier should do enough against a poor Vikings defense to win this game.
Best Total – Bears v Saints u41
Another backup QB here, although one who has been fine in the couple of weeks work he’s had with the Bears, Tyson Bagent goes up against a very solid Saints defense without a lot of weapons to get the ball to. If they can’t get Dont’a Foreman going on the ground then I think they’ll struggle to move the ball and that’s likely the case in my opinion in this one.
The Saints offense has stuttered and they have been a solid “under” team for most of the season. They have admittedly found a little in recent weeks but in a game where I don’t expect their opponents to put up many points they won’t have to keep their foot on the pedal.
Best TD Scorer – Jerome Ford – 6/5
It would be Raheem Mostert above even money for the Dolphins but with that being the early game I’ll add in someone in the evening slots. Again the frequency of backup QBs makes things tough to judge, but it’s usually wise to take a running back on a team which should dominate, so that’s where I’ll go this week and take the 6/5 available at Bet365 on Jerome Ford for the Cleveland Browns. I don’t rate their offense much at all and Deshaun Watson returning doesn’t change things too much but they’re nearly 2 TD favourites against a backup QB who they should get good field position against with their elite defense
Best Player Prop – Chuba Hubbard o47.5 rush yards
The Carolina Panthers haven’t been good this year. That goes without saying but with Chuba as the starter for them last week they actually won a game so this week they announced that he would be the starter again with Miles Sanders being benched and with them going up against a Colts defense which has allowed yards I think this is a low line for Choo-bar. I don’t mind Jonathan Taylor receiving yards on the other side of the ball either, the Colts have been using him more and more as he gets up to speed and he’s capable of taking one to the house from anywhere.
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