Gooooood afternoon all, we are back for Week 3 of the NFL season after hitting 3 of 4 of my selections last week, an injury early on for Brandon Aiyuk let down the TD scorer bet early on, but the spread, total and player prop all landed.
This won’t be as in-depth as I usually go as I’m on holiday at the moment, but I wanted to get something out for the evening and allow the usual guys to get their bets in the comments as well, so without any further ado we’ll get into the nitty-gritty.
Best Spread
We’re only early in the season but there’s already quite a few games with spreads over a touchdown with the Chiefs (v Bears) and Cowboys (v Cardinals) both 12 points and higher, and frankly the favourites should both cover the spreads against very poor looking opponents, but I very rarely take double-digit favourites in the NFL, so I’ll be giving them a miss tonight. I do like the Dolphins to cover again, giving 6.5 points to the Broncos who I think could be very bad again, but my official pick for the night will be the Buffalo Bills -5.5 at the Washington Commanders. The Commies have won both of their games so far, but against two of the (probably) bottom 5 teams in the league and they allowed quite a few points in both of their games. They’re facing a Bills team who are looking to push on after a dominant win over the Raiders last week and Josh Allen’s men should be able to out-score them in this one.
Best Total
There’s already a huge total on the board as the Chargers travel to Minnesota with a 54.5 total, and it wouldn’t be too shocking to see that game fly over the total, but it is a very high one which I’ll be ignoring, conversely the lowest total of the week is 35.5 in the Jets v Patriots game where they obviously think Zach Wilson will struggle. I like The Lions and Falcons to put up a lot of points tonight though so I’ll go for the OVER 46.5 in Detroit as my selection for this week. The Lions always seem to be involved in high-scoring games and the Falcons look like they’ll be racking up points in most of their matches this season as well as Bijan Robinson settles into the league.
Best TD scorer
There are already a handful of big injuries affecting teams across the league and leading to other players getting their chances of big games, but annoyingly a lot of the prices are shorter than I’d have hoped. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt coming in for the Browns after Nick Chubbs horrendous injury last week were on my list, but both under 3/1 as best prices. Durham Smythe was a name I was looking at for the Dolphins with Jaylen Waddle likely to miss, but again, 27/10 best price isn’t in my wheel house. Bijan Robinson is available above evens again and I think I’ll keep taking that price on until it’s no longer available, admittedly he didn’t find the endzone last week but finished with 19 carries for 124 yards and his workload will likely keep growing, in a game which I think should be a high-scorer I’ll take him at 21/20 at Bet365 and other places.
I’ll give player props a miss today as I’m looking out over the Baltic sea in Croatia with a beer in hand, which isn’t the best time to be digging through the multitude of options available but I’ll be back next weekend with a more comprehensive look around the league and my usual 4 bets.
Good luck with your bets tonight, should be some cracking games. Adam @TouchdownTips
The post NFL Week 3; Best spread, Total and TD scorer bets appeared first on MrFixitsTips.
