With the start of the NFL season on the horizon, @TouchdownTips is back with a look around the league at his favourite ante-post bets before things get going on Thursday Night as the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs take on one of the hype teams of the off-season in the form of the Detroit Lions.
He has been scouring the internet looking at the many, many, MANY markets available and have picked out his favourite 5 for your perusal, but first… a quick skim around the league and who we think will win each division, make the playoffs, and of course, which teams will be taking the field in the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas in February next year.
Division Winners
Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs – 25/1 (Skybet)
The AFC North looks as tough as ever, The Ravens have strengthened their supporting cast, the Browns and Steelers start on defense and can get hot on offense, but the Bengals (6/4 – Skybet) haven’t changed much from the team which won 12 games last season. The Dolphins (3/1 Most) were winning every week with Tua Tagovailoa healthy last year and while I’m not convinced he’ll see out the season this year, I have to take them at the price over the hype-filled Jets and a Buffalo team who seem to struggle when playing the top teams. The Jaguars (4/6 Skybet) are one of the shortest price teams across the league, but for good reason, the Colts and Texans continue their rebuilds so the only challenge is the Titans who do perform well, but with play-off experience now under his belt Trevor Lawrence will be sniffing for more. The Chiefs are the Chiefs (5/8), it’s a tough division with the Chargers there, but KC have dominated it for years and with the best QB in the game under center I doubt that will change, it is however worth keeping an eye on the health of Travis Kelce to see how he comes through his knee strain this week.
Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers – 36/1 (Coral/Ladbrokes)
The NFC North looks like it’s between the Vikings and the Lions, and I prefer the team with experience of winning the division over the upstarts, the Vikes won 13 games last year and haven’t declined that much, at 3/1 (Livescorebet) they’re a great price for the division. The Eagles (5/6 Most) look like the best team in the whole conference still and retained their studs, the Cowboys could be better but I’m not convinced Tony Pollard can take a full workload at RB while the Giants over-achieved greatly last year and may drop back this. The Commanders have a new owner so the future at least looks better for them. The NFC South looks like it’s between the Falcons and Saints, and realistically it should be the Saints winning as they’ve upgraded at QB with Derek Carr coming in, but I’m plumping for the nicer odds for the Falcons (5/2 Coral/Ladbrokes) – They treated themselves to Bijan Robinson in the draft and behind one of the better run-blocking lines he could feast, the Panthers and Buccs look like they’ll fight out the bottom two spots. The NFC West also seems like it’s down to two, but the 49ers are one of the better teams in the league so I’ll be taking them to win it again although I’m not sure Brock Purdy will be able to take them through the playoffs, the Seahawks will push them but the Rams and Cardinals could both be top 5 picks next year.
Playoffs
Added to the 8 teams above I’ve got the Ravens, Bills and Chargers from the AFC. Cowboys, Seahawks and Lions from the NFC.
Eventually we may well see another repeat in the AFC Championship game with the Chiefs and Bengals facing each other while I wouldn’t be shocked if the NFC ends up as the two favourites against each other as well with the 49ers and Eagles against each other.
In a shocking turn of events (as a Bengals fan myself) I’m looking forward to the Bengals (Best priced at 11/1 with Ladbrokes) finally gaining vengeance on the 1989 49ers team by beating San Fran in the Super Bowl.
If you’re backing any Super Bowl combination make sure to choose the NFC winner and AFC winner rather than any “pick the teams” combination as they’ll likely shave the odds on those.
My favourite Prop Bets (in no particular order)
There are a lot of markets available and of course, the longshots on MVP and the rookie of the year markets are more fun and don’t require a whole lot of investment for the chance to win big, but they are very tough to get right so I tend to avoid them. You’re probably looking the top 5 in the market for MVP, Offensive rookie is probably Bijan Robinson although QBs always have the front seat in this market, DROY is tough to pick, Jalen Carter would be my choice. The one sure thing looks like Comeback Player of the Year being Damar Hamlin who literally died on the field last year and has made it back to the Bills roster, but 1/4 isn’t exactly tempting.
Brandon Aiyuk o4.5 receiving TDs (5/6 Skybet)
The end of last season saw Brock Purdy take over at QB and he did a good enough job that they’ve shipped off Trey Lance and gone all in with last years Mr. Irrelevant. We saw enough to know that he’ll get the ball to his best players and while Deebo Samuel will always be used in a multitude of ways, Brandon Aiyuk is probably the WR1 in the team through the air and after finishing last year with 8 scores it’s a bit of a shock to see a line this low. (It is 5.5 on PP with 8/11 to the over, so take advantage!)
George Pickens o4.5 receiving TDs (10/11 Skybet, 5/6 PaddyPower)
It pains me to do this as a fan of a rival team, but the Steelers were TERRIBLE last year through the air with a rookie QB who threw 7 TDs all year and 9 interceptions, but Pickens still managed to score 4 times (week 1 was with Mitchell Trubisky) – So with the offensive line looking stronger, Pickett looking like he’ll take a step forward and the big play ability from the leagues most arrogant player it seems likely to me that Pickens will score at least once every 3 games to get to 5.
David Montgomery 8+ rushing TDs – 15/8 (Skybet)
The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league and while they drafted Jamhyr Gibbs very high in the draft they shipped out D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams to replace them with probable upgrades in Gibbs and David Montgomery who joins them from the Bears. Monty is a better runner than Williams and will likely get the goal-line role that took Jamaal to 17 rushing TDs last season. We know Goff won’t sneak it and Gibbs trends to be a more versatile pass-catching back than bruiser. This line started at 5.5 on Bet365 and is now up to 7.5 at even money, so these odds are generous on Sky.
CJ Stroud u3125.5 passing yards – 10/11 (Bet365)
Enough positivity, one injury and those bets are dead, whereas betting an under on a rookie QB with one of the worst receiving groups around him seems like a sensible bet to me. Former Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz may be his favoured target with Robert Woods providing the only real experience in the WR group. Nico Collins starts his second season while Tank Dell comes in as a rookie. They should go run heavy with Dameon Pierce, either way I doubt it will be a fun year for the young QB.
Cooper Kupp u1150.5 receiving yards – 5/6 (Skybet)
Will Kupp see the field at all this year? He’s apparently seeing a specialist to have a look at his hamstring injury which apparently isn’t like other hamstring strains? That worries me, add to that the fact that they’re not exactly going to be competitive this year and that Matthew Stafford struggles to stay healthy. He will have the vast majority of targets with not much else around him but I have so many worries I’ll take the under on him, and we’ll see if he hits the IR at any point. Worth noting 365 and Paddypower have both removed his market already.
Good luck for the season, I hope it’s as exciting as last year and we all make some money. I’ll be back on Thursday 7th with a preview for the opening game and then at the weekend for Week 1!
You can find more of my stuff at touchdowntips.com and @TouchdownTips on Twitter/X.
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