Week 5 of the NFL is here and we’re about to go through a quarter of the season already. It’s the first time in history that 15 teams have gone this far into the season with 2-2 records and with just one unbeaten team in the form of the Philadelphia Eagles it’s safe to suggest that the NFL’s dream of parity isn’t far from being realised.
I nailed the London game last week with the Vikings winning and the total going over, and totals carried on winning as the Cowboys and Commanders played in a stinker.
The Browns did all but win against the Falcons and the writing was on the wall there after one drive where they couldn’t punch it into the endzone while the pressure on Khalil Herbert showed as the 1-yard line was the closest he got to scoring. James Robinson didn’t rush well against an Eagles defense I maybe didn’t rate highly enough – So that’s a summary of last week done. On to week 5.
Giants +8.5 at Packers: 41.5 (London)
A quick look at the London game again as the Packers come over for the first time making it a full set of NFL teams now having played in London.
It’s not the Packers and Giants of old and it looks like this will be a run-heavy game from both sides as Jones and Dillon get the touches for the Packers while Saquon Barkley gets the bulk of the touches for the Giants.
Aaron Rodgers threw a terrible pick last week, something very rare so I doubt we’ll see too many risks from him this week as he find Lazard and Doubs in the passing game, the rookie looking like he’s got a good connection with his QB already. Aaron Jones will likely get more touches on the ground but both he and Dillon are adept rushers, and for my sanity I’d love 1 or 2 scores from the tree-trunk legged rusher.
The Giants have been killed at WR this year and having David Sills as the main man there severely limits your options, add to that Daniel Jones coming in nursing an ankle injury which took him out of last weeks game for some time and it’s not pretty for the Giants, but they have Saquon Barkley looking as good as he has done in years running the ball, as well as being their leading receiver so they should be able to move the ball to some extent especially against a Packers run defense which hasn’t been good so far this year.
Packers should win and cover, I’ve got to lean under the total, but Spurs’ stadium has seen points historically. My one bet here is Barkley o78.5 rushing yards available everywhere. – I do also like the PaddyPower boost of Jones and Barkley over 50 yards and a TD each at 9/1
Best Spread
Dolphins -3.5 @ Jets
The Miami Dolphins enter this game with Teddy Bridgewater under center and while it is a downgrade from Tua Tagovailoa, it’s not a major one. Both of them are capable of finding Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and that’s all you need to do in this offense as they sprint away for big gains.
The Jets are 2-2 for the first time in forever after two miracle wins against the Browns and Steelers and while Zach Wilson looked all right in the game-winning drive last week they shouldn’t have been that close. I think they’ve got boosted too much off of that win against a rookie QB making his debut and while I don’t think they’ll get blown out, I don’t see them winning this one.
Best Total
Seahawks @ Saints o44.5
There’s some low totals on the board this week as offenses continue to struggle to get going, in fact there’s only one game over 50 points and that’s on Monday night at Arrowhead.
The Seahawks were involved in one of the highest-scoring games in history last week and while that won’t happen again here they have shown they can put up points with Geno Smith the highest rated QB in the NFC according to PFF. He’s running the offense well. The Saints on the other hand are probably better at the moment with Dalton at QB as Jameis was severely limited due to his injury, and they welcome back Alvin Kamara this week who will hopefully put up some yards.
I like points here.
Best TD Scorer
ggfe
For someone who goes by TouchdownTips, I have stunk on picking TD scorers this year, although did hit on 11/2 Will Dissly last week, although it wasn’t the main pick for me.
This week I do like Barkley, I quite like the early TD Treble on Skybet at the price on offer as well, but my pick for the week comes in The Bengals at Ravens, I expect a lot of points in that game, and while they haven’t been able to get the ball to Ja’marr Chase much so far this year, they have been finding Tee Higgins in space with regularity. He is nursing an ankle injury, but he’s been the go-to man this year so far, and with Higgins at 15/8 compared to the 5/4 on offer for Chase, I have to take the value. Tee Higgins anytime TD – 15/8
Best player prop
Adam Trautman o9.5 rec. yards
Ok, I have been high on the Traut since he entered the league and he consistently burns me on receiving yard props, but… hear me out here… Andy Dalton targeted him 3 times last week and he caught all of them for 37 yards. QBs don’t chance their stripes and Dalton has always enjoyed using the tight end in mid-routes, so I’m taking him this week to have probably 1 reception and hit this very low mark.
Other considerations were George Pickens o40.5, James Robinson over his line, Derrick Henry o11.5 rec. yards.
Good luck all, and enjoy the weekend!
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