Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
Exeter have started the season well and look to have made the jump up to League One look easy and comfortable. They sit 5th in the table having W2-D1-L1 scoring nine goals in the process. Their home record has been very impressive with a 3-1 win over Wycombe and a 4-0 victory over Port Vale.
They have scored in every game and its easy to see why when you look at their underlying performance. 5th highest number of shots and 3rd most shots in the box with an xG of 7.1 or 1.775 per home – this is the highest in the division.
Last season they averaged 1.67 goals per home game, although this was in League Two, scoring in 18/23 games and so far, this have scored in every game in the season.
Sam Nombe is averaging 0.66 goals per game with an xG of 0.74 and will be a threat to Cheltenham on Saturday afternoon.
The visitors have struggled so far this season with W0-D1-L3 conceding seven goals already. Only four teams have conceded more shots, they sit 22nd for shots on target conceded and 5th bottom for xGA with 1.3
These two sides faced each other in the EFL Cup two weeks ago with Exeter winning the game 7-0. I don’t think the score line will be similar on Saturday, but these two sides have started the season in opposing form and the hosts should be too strong for them here.
- Exeter to score over 1 goal at 8/11 with Bet365
Peterborough United v Lincoln City
Staying in League One I am going back in with Peterborough to score over 1 goal with Bet365 at 4/5.
Posh sit 2nd in the league with W3-D0-L1 having scored eight goals in their four games.
It was a poor performance at Plymouth as they lost the game 2-0 and the xG 2.27 vs 0.67, but they did enough against Sheff Wednesday on Tuesday night winning the game 2-0, although the game did turn after a sending off.
So far at home they have scored three and two goals with an average xG of 1.97 per game. Only Ipswich have had more shots and shots on target than Posh, whilst only Exeter have a higher xG. Whilst it’s a very small sample for home matches, Posh sit 2nd for shots, 1st for shots on target and 3rd for shots in the box on target. The players they have in attacking positions should excel at this level with Clarke Harris, Marriott, Ward and Ajiboye. Last time Posh got promoted their home form was key with an average of 2.26 goals scored per home game whilst finding the net at least twice against 13 of the bottom 14 sides, the squad is similar this time around.
Lincoln are undefeated this season with W1-D3-L0 yet I have them 18th on xPTS. The Imps beat Oxford on Tuesday night 2-1 yet lost the xG 1.95 vs 0.48. They have conceded 14 shots in both away games and failed to even register a shot on target in the 0-0 draw with Portsmouth.
Only six sides have conceded more shots on target than the Imps so far this season and that’s not a good stat when you are travelling to face Posh.
I think there has been an overreaction to the midweek results with Posh winning despite struggling until the sending off and Lincoln beating Oxford, who have been one of the worst performing teams so far in League One this term.
- I am happy to back Posh to score at least twice at 4/5 with Bet365
Sheffield United v Blackburn Rovers
Sheffield Utd have started the season in steady but unspectacular fashion with W2-D1-L1 with their defeat coming in the opening game against fellow promotion contenders, Watford.
Since that defeat they have beaten Millwall and Sunderland whilst drawing 2-2 at Middlesbrough. It’s their home record under Paul Heckingbottom which is so impressive. He has now taken charge of 16 league games at Bramall Lane with a record of W12-D3-L1 conceding just five goals. Their only defeat came against Reading. The Royals were a little fortunate on the day to walk away with the three points. The Blades equalized in the 90th minute yet still had time to lose the game, despite winning the xG 1.86 v 1.35 and the shot count 12 v 8, with Reading managing just 0.84 xG from open play.
The Blades will be challenging the top six come the end of season and have a good mix of experience and quality in their squad.
Blackburn start the season well with wins over QPR, Swansea and WBA, but the defeat and performance against Reading on Tuesday night should have the alarm bells ringing for Rovers fans.
Despite their start they sit 20th for xPTS with both home victories a little lucky generating just 0.94 xG across both games yet scoring three goals. Away from home they beat Swansea 3-0 yet their xG was just 0.7 scoring three times from just 4 shots all of which were on target. Only Coventry, who have played just two games, have had fewer shots in the box than Blackburn. On average only three sides have had fewer shots on target and no side has had fewer shots on target in the box. Defensively, they have been a midtable side, but they face a very good Blades side with an excellent home record.
The odds for a home win are a little short so I am going to add Sheffield Utd over 0 cards to boost the odds to even money. Under Heckingbottom they have collected a card in 16 of 17 home games with an average of 2.41 cards per game.
- Sheffield Utd over 0 cards and to win the match – 1/1 with Bet365
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