The 2021-22 EFL Cup campaign reaches its climax when record eight-time winners Liverpool and Chelsea, themselves five-time winners, fight it out for the first major piece of silverware of the season at Wembley.
Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea have got to the final the hard way having needed to see off four Premier League rivals in their four ties while they have been through the anguish of two penalty shootouts.
Liverpool’s toughest test came against Leicester City in the last eight, a match which also went to penalties after a 3-3 draw.
Jurgen Klopp’s side are 27/20 in 90-minute betting with Chelsea at 11/5 and the draw at 9/4.
Resist Temptation to Be Swayed By History
The last time Chelsea appeared in the EFL Cup final was in 2019 and they lost on penalties to Manchester City. The last time Liverpool made it was three years earlier, and they too lost to Manchester City, and also on penalties.
Indeed, the last time Liverpool lifted the trophy was exactly a decade ago and, yes, you’ve guessed it, they needed penalties to get over the line. Cardiff were their victims that day.
It’s 17/1 that Liverpool win this year’s competition on penalties (the same price Chelsea) though it may well pay to disregard recent history and get aboard the Reds to win in normal time at 27/20.
If we know one thing about Chelsea under Thomas Tuchel it’s that they have a knack of delivering in the biggest games of all.
Yes, they came up one short in the FA Cup final last May, beaten by Leicester. But if you’d have said to Chelsea fans on the day of Tuchel’s arrival that within 13 months he’d have won the Champions League, Super Cup and Club World Cup and got them to two domestic finals, they’d have said “no chance”.
This time, however, everything points to a Liverpool win with firepower – and a lack of it in Chelsea’s case – the factor that may well dictate how this showdown is settled.
Shot-Shy Chelsea Can Be Blunted
If it comes down to a straight shotoout, to a ‘we’ve got more goals in us than you’ bragging match, then Liverpool hold all the aces – and know how to play them.
Consider this. Chelsea have mustered 20 shots on target and scored six Premier League goals since the turn of the year. Liverpool have mustered 19 shots on target and scored nine Premier League goals since last Saturday.
Statistically, there really isn’t much between these two giants defensively but when it comes to attacking, they are currently poles apart.
A return of Mason Mount to add some guile to Chelsea would be welcome but with Mo Salah and Sadio Mane back from the AFCON and in free-scoring form, and Lucas Diaz added to the mix and already scoring, Liverpool’s forward riches are impressive.
Salah is 4/1 to score first but Mane at 13/2 might be more value with Liverpool poised to make it ten straight wins and lift the cup for a ninth time.
*All odds correct at time of writing.
