UFC Vegas 47 was a very lucrative fight card for my picks, as I went 11-2 overall on the night, including a couple of nice underdog picks. While I can’t promise the same this weekend, let’s try to keep the good times going at UFC 271.
Saturday’s pay-per-view comes to us from Houston’s Toyota Center, which has become a favourite spot for the promotion to run events. We’ve got a title fight rematch headlining the card, with a couple of de facto #1 contender fights in the second and third slots on the fight card. But top to bottom this is a packed, intriguing 15-fight offering.
The main event is for the UFC Middleweight Championship, as Israel Adesanya makes his fourth defense of the title he won off Saturday’s opponent, Robert Whittaker. Since being knocked out by Adesanya at UFC 243 in October 2019, Whittaker has won three straight fights to get himself back in the title hunt.
Whittaker has used his wrestling far more often than before in his past few fights, to great effect, and that strategy would seem to make sense going up against a dangerous striker like Adesanya. However, the champ’s grappling defense is quite strong, so that probably won’t be a successful endeavour. It’s Whittaker’s inaccurate striking that will probably do him in, like the first time these two fought, as Adesanya will make him pay with his counterstriking. While I’m not predicting another Adesanya knockout win necessarily, I am picking him to win this fight at 4/13.
Battle of the Heavyweight Contenders
The co-main event could be to determine the top contender in the heavyweight division, but that weight class is in a bit of a flux with champ Francis Ngannou in a contract dispute with the organization. Saturday will see sluggers Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa slug it out in Lewis’s hometown, where he is 5-1 as a pro. While both men have prodigious power, I’m liking Lewis’s power and chin better than Tuivasa’s. Plus, the Australian seems like he’ll be willing to throw it down with the Texan, which will be a bad move. Lewis at 1/2 is the pick.
Saturday also brings us a middleweight fight which could determine the next contender in that weight class. This one sees veterans Jared Cannonier and Derek Brunson lock horns. I’m going dog in this one, taking Brunson at 13/10. He’s on a late career surge, winning five straight fights, and has gone back to his roots, relying on his wrestling to win fights rather than getting into slugfests. Cannonier had difficulty with wrestlers earlier in his career, so Brunson’s grappling plus the power in his strikes could be the ticket to a big underdog score for us.
Knight to Win His Duel
Elsewhere on the underdog front, I’m also backing light heavyweight William Knight at 7/5 in his fight against Maxim Grishin. Knight hits like a truck, and I think he can land a few choice shots on Grishin and perhaps turn his lights out. And I’ve picked against Knight almost exclusively throughout his UFC career and it’s always bit me. Time to get on board. He’s worth a play at plus money.
That’s it for the underdogs – how about some recommended plays I put out on my podcast, The MMA Gambling Podcast, this past episode? I like Andrei Arlovski to beat Jared Vanderaa via decision at 13/10. Pick Casey O’Neill to (T)KO the retiring Roxanne Modafferi for 3/1 your money. Take Derek Brunson to win outright, like I mentioned above. And finally, I like Derrick Lewis to win via (T)KO at 4/5. Now go get that money!