Are you ready for something a little different in this column? With no UFC this week, how about we try our hand at picking some winners for Bellator 273, going down Saturday from the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. Then we’ll be back with eight straight weeks of UFC events, starting next week with UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Strickland.
First, a shameless plug – you can get a complete breakdown of Bellator 273 plus Friday’s Eagle FC 44 (Khabib Nurmagomedov’s promotion) on The MMA Gambling Podcast, which I host. And if you listen, you’ll see that I’m stealing a lot of my cohost Daniel ‘Gumby’ Vreeland’s opinions on this Bellator card and putting them in this column!
Heavyweight Unification Headliner
Just like UFC 270, Bellator 273 will be headlined by a heavyweight title unification bout. Bellator Heavyweight Champion Ryan Bader will be facing Bellator Interim Heavyweight Champion Valentin Modavsky.
The reason there is an interim champion is because Bader hasn’t defended his heavyweight crown since September of 2019, when his fight against Cheick Kongo was ruled a No Contest due to an eye poke (Bader being the poker, Kongo the pokee). Bader had captured the heavyweight crown in January of 2019, beating Fedor Emelianenko to win the Bellator Heavyweight World Grand Prix. Since September 2019 he has solely been fighting at light heavyweight, where he was the champion since 2017. Things at 205 pounds haven’t gone so well lately, as Vadim Nemkov TKO’d him for the title, then Corey Anderson TKO’d him his last time out, this past October (he beat the elderly Lyoto Machida in between these two losses).
Which is all a long way of saying Ryan Bader’s best days are probably in his rear-view mirror. A 38-year-old who’s been knocked out in two out of his last three fights isn’t someone you want to put your money on. And Saturday’s opponent, Valentin Moldavsky, has the wrestling to thwart Bader’s strongest tool. He also is a perfect 6-0 in Bellator, and 11-1 overall as a pro. However, he also isn’t a finisher in the least, with only four of those 11 wins coming via finish. So Moldavsky at 10/31 is the pick, and if you want to spice it up take him to win via decision at 5/2.
Former UFC Champ in Action
Saturday’s co-main event also features another former prominent UFC name, like Bader, in Benson Henderson. The former UFC Lightweight Champion (as well as WEC Lightweight Champion) made the jump to Bellator six years ago and hasn’t found the same level of success in his new home. ‘Smooth’ has only gone 5-6 in his Bellator career, including two title fight losses (one at welterweight and one at lightweight). Having lost three straight fights, he faces the 20-1-1 Islam Mamedov this weekend, a man who is undefeated in 20 straight fights. Mamedov is younger, bigger and better at this point in the two men’s careers. Mamedov at 2/9 is the pick (and, once again, if you want to get spicy with it take him via decision at 20/27).
How about we finish things off with a live dog, as per usual? I’m liking former Bellator Bantamweight Champion Darrion Caldwell in his fight against UFC veteran (and The Ultimate Fighter winner) Enrique Barzola. It’s a bit of a surprise that Caldwell comes in as an underdog at 21/20 for this fight. Barzola has never fought in Bellator, has been out of action for almost two years, and hasn’t won a fight since 2019 (he ended his UFC career with a loss then a draw). Look for Caldwell to use his strong wrestling and get his hand raised on Saturday.
