The Super Bowl might be the be-all and end-all in the NFL, but for football purists the divisional round of the play-offs is the one to circle on the calendar.
What could be better than four games packed full of quality and drama? And this year’s line-up for the divisional round is a mouthwatering one, kicking off with a perfect appetiser as the Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans – two teams chasing their first Super Bowl – square off in Nashville.
King Henry to Rule Over Cincinnati
The Bengals ended a 31-year wait for a first play-off win last week against the Las Vegas Raiders and now head south hoping to secure the franchise’s first-ever post-season road victory.
Cincy quarterback Joe Burrow is confident it can be achieved and if he plays to his potential then they have a chance.
Burrow has been red-hot the last three weeks, completing over 76 per cent of his passes and throwing for 10 touchdowns.
He leads an offence that can tear most teams to shreds, but the Titans’ defence has been good all year, giving up less than 21 points per game on average.
The defence has had to be good to carry the offence, which lost its crown jewel in Derrick Henry nine weeks ago due to a foot injury.
Henry is back now and that makes the Titans a dangerous beast, especially against a Cincinnati side missing a few men on the defensive line.
The Titans could also have an edge in the coaching match-up, with the Titans’ Mike Vrabel having outsmarted the best and brightest in the NFL at times this year.
The Titans are 25/27 to cover a 3.5-point spread and that looks doable.
Packers and Niners can put on a show
The Packers and Niners meet in the early hours of Sunday morning in a game that is tough to call, although the spread would disagree.
Green Bay are 9-1 in the last ten at home and are favoured by 5.5 points, priced at 10/11 to cover.
However, that seems to overlook the fact the Niners are enjoying their best run of the season, winning in Dallas last week to make it eight wins from the last 10.
The Niners rushing attack, which ranks seventh in the NFL, has what it takes to expose a Packers defence that has had trouble stopping the run all year.
No one has found an answer to stopping wide receiver/running back hybrid Deebo Samuel, who is 20/23 to have over 38.5 rushing yards, and this Niners offence is more than good enough to hurt a Green Bay team that’s allowed 22 points or more in six of its last seven games.
The Packers are ready to fight fire-with-fire though, Aaron Rodgers having operated on another level to most quarterbacks this year.
The childhood Niners fan can do it all, performing masterfully under pressure, and carved up San Francisco in a 30-28 win for Green Bay in the regular season, so with so much offensive talent on the field, over 47 points appeals.
Banged up Bucs Face Elimination
Sunday’s games kick off with another regular season rematch as the LA Rams head to Tampa Bay hoping to repeat their Week 3 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.
And why can’t the Rams spring a surprise at 6/5 given how they’ve played in recent weeks?
The defence is good enough to give legendary Bucs quarterback Tom Brady fits. with Aaron Donald and Von Miller proving unplayable.
The Rams offence looked well balanced in Monday’s wild card win over Arizona, with the return of running back Cam Akers adding another string to the impressive bow.
Cooper Kupp leads the league in receiving yards and touchdowns this year, while Matthew Stafford is a top quality quarterback on his day.
Going against Brady in the play-offs is never easy – he’s 11-2 in his career in the divisional round – but the Bucs are missing some key players on both sides of the ball and the Rams look the more well-rounded team.
Bills a Major Threat to Chiefs
The divisional round concludes with a monster AFC game as the Buffalo Bills travel to the reigning conference champion Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs beat the Bills in last year’s AFC Championship game, but Buffalo got a measure of revenge with a 38-20 win in the regular season.
That is one of 12 wins the Bills have secured by double-digit margins this season with their offence red-hot at times.
They scored seven touchdowns in seven possessions when crushing New England in the wild card round, but the Chiefs have an offence that can keep pace.
Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes in Kansas City’s one-sided win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week and the Chiefs average over 32 points per game in the post-season with Mahomes at QB.
The difference between these two could be on defence, with the Bills ranking number one in total defence DVOA.
They’ve only given up more than 21 points once in the last eight games and could do enough to slow the Chiefs down, whereas it’s questionable Kansas City can do the same.
The Chiefs defence hit its stride midway through the season, but hasn’t been quite as good of late.
In a game featuring two high-powered offences, the team that makes maybe just one stop could have the final say and the Bills could be that team, being priced at 25/27 with a two-point handicap.
*All odds correct at time of writing