With Covid once again rearing it’s ugly head and disrupting holiday plans for the world it’s no surprise that some of the most tested people on the planet ended up testing positive and there were some major “outbreaks” around the NFL this week with some teams reporting up to 25 players testing positive.
As a result, we get 6 of the next 7 days with NFL games! And on the more positive side for the players the NFLPA and the league have agreed different measures meaning that vaccinated players without symptoms won’t need to get tested as regularly and they’ll hopefully manage to keep positive results to a minimum and avoid much further disruption.
The good thing about this current variant is that it’s virility should mean it passes through everywhere pretty quickly and we’ll get back to relative normality in a short period of time.
NFL Week 15
Best spread
With limited games on the Sunday this week there’s not as much choice, there are still a few sides I like the look of, of course, but the one I landed on was the Packers -6.5 against the Ravens.
The Ravens are either without Lamar Jackson, or with him in a limited fashion after an ankle injury took him out of the game last week. Frankly I’m not too bothered who’s at QB for them the Packers are rolling and even with Rodgers once again moaning about his poorly two I would expect them to carve up a Ravens defense missing a whole host of players.
Even when fully fit Lamar hasn’t been playing well in recent weeks, he’s not had a QBR over 50 for a month and a bit, and with Hollywood Brown also coming into this game less than 100% the offensive side of the ball looks dodgy for them as whole.
Davante Adams should have a big game, Dillon and Jones on the ground are a good partnership and the Packers are getting players back on defense as well as they look to push for the Superbowl, I think they win going away.
Packers -6.5
Best Total
Not easy picking a total this week, I do like the over in the Titans v Steelers game but it’s not without risk as both could put up stinkers and fail completely, so I’m going back to my faithful Bengals and taking the Over 44 in Denver.
These two teams could be very good next year with sensible off-seasons and they both set up similarly on offense, good run games, good pass catchers and an ability to spread the ball around their team.
The Broncos run duo have been very good this year, both scored twice last week against the Lions and they’ll likely continue their 50/50 split while the trio of Jeudy, Sutton and Patrick has the potential to be on of the better combos in the league, the only minor negative on their offense is the QB, Teddy Bridgewater is fine but he won’t take this team to the playoffs.
On the visiting team there is a QB capable of taking his team to the playoffs, Joe Burrow has been outstanding in recent weeks and I hope they allow him more passes to get the offense moving, he and Chase have a great partnership while Higgins and Boyd move the ball between the 20s, while Joe Mixon has scored 11 in his last 10 games despite not getting on the sheet last week.
Basically both offenses are loaded and should both be able to put up points. Over 44
Best TD Scorer
This is between two players really, so I should just pick both of them, James Conner – 4/5 (Coral/Ladbrokes) I can’t say no to near-evens on someone who’s scored in his last 7 games and has 16 on the season. Going up against the team that currently have the worst record in the league. It seems too easy.
Davante Adams – 5/6 (365) is the other I’m looking at around evens, he scored last week and against a beaten up Ravens secondary… (see above) he should have a big game as the main, unguardable target on the Packers offense.
Dawson Knox at 9/4 (Skybet) has to be thrown in as a bonus play as well, I’m surprised they keep pricing him above 2/1 and I can’t ignore that fact. 6 TDs from 18 redzone targets this year, and 8 scores in total. He scored against the Bucs last week and dropped a couple in the endzone a fortnight ago against the Patriots. The Bills should put up 30 this week, I like Knox to get a score.
And that’s it for pre-Christmas betting.
Thanks for reading all year and enjoy the holidays. I should be back for Boxing day but that’s life-dependant.
Adam (@TouchdownTips)
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