It was bound to happen eventually – the other shoe always drops. UFC Vegas 40 was the “revenge of the underdogs” as after a full month plus of favourites coming through at a higher-than-normal clip, we had dogs win at a 50% rate last weekend.
Still, I didn’t do so bad with my picks, going 6-4. However, you expect more out of me, so let’s go get some money at UFC Fight Night: Costa vs Vettori aka UFC Vegas 41, once again from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Higher Weight Limit Favours Costa
The main event is supposed to be a middleweight five round fight between top contenders Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori. I said ‘supposed to be’ because on Wednesday Costa announced that he weighs 211 pounds and has no interest or ability to cut down to the middleweight limit of 185. And if Vettori doesn’t accept the fight with him at a new weight class it’s because he doesn’t want to fight him. Well, his ploy appears to have worked as the Italian seems ready to agree to a light heavyweight (205 pound) fight.
This is a big mistake, as the already bigger and stronger Costa will be getting all the advantages here by not having to cut weight. Regardless, Vettori was my original pick for this fight and I’m sticking with him at 20/31. He’s the better all-around fighter by far, and is extremely durable, having never been stopped in a fight (Costa’s path to victory in 11 of his 12 pro wins was knockout). However, I’m not feeling as confident about it at a higher weight class.
Easy Pick in the Co-Main Event
There isn’t too much to say about the co-main event, a lightweight tilt between Grant Dawson and Rick Glenn. Dawson is 17-1 as a pro, including a perfect 5-0 in the UFC. He also has a two-inch reach advantage on Glenn, is five years his junior, and is the superior grappler. Easy pick – Dawson at 2/9.
Ok, enough chalk – let’s go with some underdogs and get some real money. We’ll start with a stab at a big one – Alex ‘Bruce Leeroy’ Caceres at 11/5 for his featherweight fight against Seung Woo Choi. UFC veteran Caceres has time and again confounded the odds and beaten favoured opponents, many of them better fighters than Choi. Plus, he’s won four straight fights and has the better striking stats. I think it’s a calculated roll of the dice for a big payoff.
We’ll move on to a small underdog in Dwight Grant at 21/20 going up against long-time UFC competitor Francisco Trinaldo. First off, Trinaldo has always fought at lightweight but has struggled to get down to 155 pounds lately, hence him fighting up at 170 pounds now. Grant will be the much larger man, having four inches of height and six inches of reach on his Brazilian counterpart, not to mention being six years younger and the better striker. Another solid dog.
Another Underdog Pick and Lock of the Week
Khama Worthy for some reason is posted as a 29/20 underdog for his lightweight fight against Jai Herbert. This despite Herbert losing both of his UFC fights, both via stoppage. This could turn into a slugfest, in which case Worthy is the better and more active striker. I’ll take that plus money, thank you very much.
That’s it for the underdogs, now I’ll move on to my lock. Livia Renata Souza is at a favourable 20/27 line for her women’s strawweight fight against Randa Markos. Markos relies solely on her wrestling to win fights (which, in fairness, hasn’t been that successful of a plan, as she’s 10-11-1 as a pro and 6-10-1 in the UFC) and Souza is a strong grappler. Look for her to keep this fight standing, where she is the far superior striker.
*Odds correct at time of writing.