Max Verstappen heads to this weekend’s US Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas atop the championship standings, but his Red Bull team are braced for a strong challenge from seven-time champ Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes.
In the most dramatic F1 season for decades the championship lead has changed four times in the last six races, and there’s every chance the top of the table could flip-flop again this weekend.
Mercedes Looking to Extend Impressive Austin Record
Hamilton won at the circuit four straight years between 2013 and 2017, and the last grand prix staged there in 2019 saw a 1-2 finish for Mercedes as Valtteri Bottas headed home the Englishman.
Hamilton, who is rated a 10/13 shot to claim his 101st career F1 victory, trails his Dutch rival by six points with six races to go, and would reclaim the championship lead if he wins in Austin.
Mercedes won just one of the ten races between Spain in May and September’s Russian Grand Prix, but the Silver Arrows have now collected two wins on the bounce. Hamilton’s slightly fortunate win in the rain in Russia was followed by a first of the season for Bottas in Turkey last time, and the team seem to have found something extra as the title race reaches its climax.
In addition, Verstappen has now gone three races without a win – his longest drought of the season.
Flying Finn in a Rich Vein of Form
No-one has scored more points than Bottas over the last three races, despite the Finn starting 19th in Italy and 16th in Russia after grid penalties.
His Turkish triumph came from pole position (albeit after a penalty for Hamilton) and he also set the fastest lap in the race. There looks plenty of mileage in backing Bottas each-way in Texas at 16/1, especially considering the Finn is the most recent winner at the track.
Verstappen shouldn’t be counted out by any means. He finished ahead of Hamilton in Austin in 2018 despite starting 18th and has four top-four finishes at the track in less competitive machinery. However, he looks to be up against it given the current might of Mercedes.
Norris Could Bounce Back With Podium
McLaren had an off-weekend in Turkey but it would come as no surprise if the papaya cars bounce back in Texas.
Some circuits just don’t seem to suit their car, and a dismal performance in the Netherlands was followed by a 1-2 finish in Italy, to illustrate that fact.
Lando Norris was unlucky not to follow that up with a win in Russia after being caught out by the late rainstorm, and they should not be written off after an unimpressive show at Istanbul.
Norris has four podiums this season, and at a circuit that should be better suited to the McLaren, he could be value at 16/5 for a fifth.
*All odds correct at time of writing