Thursday Night Football offers an intriguing clash between the last two number one draft picks as Cincinnati Bengals host the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Paul Brown Stadium.
Not intriguing in terms of a result, perhaps with the Bengals installed as 3/10 favourites in the match result betting, with the teams trending in the opposite direction, with the Jaguars on offer at 53/20 to register what would be their first win of the season.
Joe Burrow has been far from foot-perfect for the Bengals, but he has overseen two victories, including a 24-10 at Heinz Field against divisional rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, in what was their most impressive performance to date.
That victory sees the Bengals share top billing with the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns in the AFC North, all with a 2-1 record, and Cincinnati have a great opportunity to at least maintain their position on Thursday.
Lawrence Needs Help
The Jaguars have not looked like winning any of their opening three games and are clearly a team on the rebuild, something that will not be helping rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence or first-year head coach Urban Meyer.
A lot is perhaps expected of Lawrence, and although it is far too early to make a judgement on his potential in the NFL, he has at times not helped himself, having thrown seven interceptions, tied-most so far this season alongside number two pick Zach Wilson.
Compared to Wilson’s two, he has thrown five touchdowns, but he doesn’t yet have the weapons other quarterbacks possess and will ultimately have to make do, which doesn’t necessarily bode well for this season.
The recent acquisition of tight end Dan Arnold may prove beneficial to Lawrence in the short term, but it has come at a cost with the departure of cornerback CJ Henderson, weakening a struggling defence.
James Robinson has been utilised more and more in the running game as the season has gone on, but the Jaguars do not appear equipped to deal with Burrow and co.
Having allowed five sacks in each of the first two games, the Bengals’ offensive line stepped up to nullify Pittsburgh’s defence at Heinz Field last week, and if Burrow is afforded the same protection, it is difficult to see how the Jags will be able to slow Burrow down.
Balance the Key for Burrow
It is certainly not obvious why Jacksonville will prove any better at getting to the QB, having registered just four sacks in their opening three games, and Burrow will be looking to control the game for the hosts.
Joe Mixon will be able to offer a balanced attack, having rushed for 286 yards already, second only to Derrick Henry, while Ja’Marr Chase provides a genuine deep threat, having scored four touchdowns – only Cooper Kupp has scored more – in the opening three games of his rookie season, three of them from 30+ yards.
Waiting all day for Thursday night
: NFLN at 8 PM pic.twitter.com/4w8md8WUFb
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) September 30, 2021
The rookie speedster is 4/1 to score the Bengals’ first touchdown, while he is priced at 11/2 to score two or more, with Mixon leading the way in both markets at 5/2 and 3/1, respectively.
Given the options available to Burrow, along with home field advantage, the Bengals look worth backing to cover the spread and are 25/26 with a -7.5 point handicap, with a leaning towards over 46 points at 25/27.
However, Jacksonville look a decent price at 23/20 to score last at 23/20, given the Bengals might well be home and hosed long before the end, while Lawrence will be desperate to be making the right impressions.
*All odds correct at the time of writing