The Bundesliga is back after the midweek excitement of the Champions League, Europa League and newly-formed Conference League with the German teams returning wildly differing results which could impact on results this weekend.
Cologne Sniffing an Upset Against Leipzig
Most vulnerable are Leipzig, thumped 6-3 by Manchester City in the Champions League on Wednesday, and far from looking like good things away to Cologne on Saturday evening.
Leipzig always knew this had the potential to be a tricky start to the season given manager Julian Nagelsmann headed to Bayern Munich, taking centre-back Dayot Upamecano and midfielder Marcel Sabitzer with him to Bavaria.
Ibrahima Konate departed for Liverpool and with him and Upamecano sold, Leipzig have been left shorn of their two centre-backs from last season.
That may help to explain them conceding six at City, while Bayern put four past them last week. Jesse Marsch’s men have also been turned over 1-0 by Mainz and Wolfsburg with the solitary success coming against Stuttgart.
Cologne are playing aggressively this season with flat-cap wearing coach Steffen Baumgart wanting them to attack in every game. The Billy Goats have beaten Hertha Berlin and Bochum, got a creditable 1-1 draw at Freiburg and were beaten just 3-2 at Bayern.
Only Erling Haaland and Robert Lewandowski have had more shots on goal this season than Cologne’s returning hero Anthony Modeste, who helped to shoot the club back into Europe in his previous spell.
Go With the Bo Selection
At 33/10 Cologne are worth chancing, although in terms of a Saturday favourite to follow Mainz look solid at 11/10 to beat Freiburg.
Mainz are brilliantly coached by Bo Svensson, who is a protege of Ralf Rangnick, and has performed miracles as he helped to save the club from relegation last season thanks to a run which included wins over Bayern and Wolfsburg.
The pressing masters have taken nine points from four matches this term and Svensson has a better points per game average than Jurgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel during their time with Mainz.
Both of those went on to win the Champions League and it’s unlikely to be too long before Svensson is attracting the interest of bigger clubs around Europe.
Freiburg have started well with eight points themselves, although their unbeaten run appears unsustainable as their expected goals figures don’t match the actual results so far.
Expect a bit of regression, possibly starting this weekend.
Dortmund Fancied to Win a Cracker
Sunday should be a fun day for German football fans with Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin expected to play out a cracker.
Dortmund have conceded at least twice in all four league outings this season but have still won three of those matches and Jude Bellingham was brilliant in Wednesday’s 2-1 Champions League success away to Besiktas.
Haaland was on target in that game – he also scored twice in last week’s 4-3 win at Leverkusen – and he usually helps to get Dortmund’s dodgy defence out of trouble.
Union, potentially tired after turning out in the Europa Conference on Thursday, will need to recover quickly after playing 51 minutes with ten men in the 3-1 defeat to Slavia Prague.
Dortmund should win but they usually do things the hard way and a home victory with over 3.5 goals appeals at 7/4.
*All odds correct at time of writing.
