The heater is over; long live the heater. I took it on the chin at UFC Vegas 33, only hitting three winners out of the nine fights I had picks in for. Ouch. But fear not – I’ve dusted myself off and I’m back at it with WINNING picks for this weekend’s UFC pay-per-view offering, UFC 265 from Houston, Texas. While this fight card isn’t the strongest, especially for a PPV, it is fairly deep.
The event is headlined by Houston native Derrick Lewis as he battles Ciryl Gane for the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship. Why the UFC insists on having an interim title when real champ Francis Ngannou is ready to fight again next month or so is beyond me, but lucky they did, because the event’s other planned title fight has fallen off. Amanda Nunes was set to defend her UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship against Julianna Pena, but her whole family contracted COVID-19.
𝓗𝓸𝓾𝓼𝓽𝓸𝓷, we're coming for ya
[ #UFC265 | August 7 | LIVE on E+ PPV: https://t.co/CjqxDnMo19 ] pic.twitter.com/7BFuVqXloD
— UFC (@ufc) July 28, 2021
The UFC insists on having at least one title fight (sometimes two of three) on each PPV, so we’re stuck with an interim title fight, which basically is just a #1 contender’s fight. And while Lewis will surely have the homecourt advantage, I’m backing the chalk and taking Gane at 4/17. While Lewis’s power might be unmatched in the sport (outside of Ngannou), Gane is the smarter, more technical fighter. He’s got the smarts, the length, the cardio, and the well-rounded fight game to get his hand raised on Saturday and put him (you’d hope) into a title unification fight against Ngannou.
Aldo Favourite to Win Veteran Battle
The new co-main event is a bantamweight battle between former featherweight champion Jose Aldo and Pedro Munhoz. While Aldo has been around forever, he is only a few days older than Munhoz, with both of them being born in 1986. While I think Aldo’s best days are way, way behind him, I also believe this is a favourable matchup for him. He’s got the striking, and more importantly, the defense, to beat Munhoz on Saturday. Aldo at 4/5 is the pick. But don’t count on another title run for him.
Ok, let’s identify some (hopefully) live dogs for this weekend. Angela Hill will be rematching Tecia Torres on Saturday after having been beaten by her way back in 2015. I think ‘Overkill’ Hill can avenge her loss in this rematch, as she’s got the striking, active striking, and grappling stats all in her favour, as well as being the bigger fighter of the two. Hill at 11/10 looks good to me.
A Safe Lock and a Big ‘Dog
I’m going with a really big underdog with my next pick and backing Ode’ Osbourne at 33/20 for his flyweight fight against Manel Kape. Osbourne has five inches of reach and will be the bigger man on fight night, as he’s fought two weight classes higher (featherweight) in the UFC. Plus, he’s proven to be a finisher, with four knockouts and four submission wins in his nine pro victories. Additionally, Kape has shown very poor fight IQ and passivity in his two-fight UFC run, both resulting in losses.
For my “lock” pick I’m going with a safe one (hopefully). Rafael Fiziev fights Bobby Green in a lightweight matchup in the main event of Saturday’s prelims. Fiziev is a dynamic striker with an extensive pro kickboxing resume. He’s also done quite well in MMA thus far, going 9-1 with six knockouts. After dropping his UFC debut, he has since won three straight, the last via knockout. He should be able to light up the much older (by seven years) Green on the feet and not allow him to employ his wrestling.