The UFC goes back to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas one more time this weekend before they take a week off to prepare for another landing from Hurricane Conor. This week’s card is heavyweight-heavy, with four big men at the top of the card. It also turned into an underdog-heavy top of the card for me. I don’t remember any other card where I’ve gone underdog for the top two fights on the night (my MMA Gambling Podcast cohost agrees with me on these dogs, for what that’s worth).
The card being offered up this week is UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Volkov, headlined by France’s Ciryl Gane and Russia’s Alexander Volkov. The undefeated Gane (8-0) is currently a 10/17 favourite on MansionBet’s board, but as hinted at above, I’m going with the underdog here. Volkov, with 41 pro fights under his belt (33-8), has a vast experience edge over Gane, and I think that is going to play an important part in this fight. The Frenchman is still clearly figuring things out in the cage during fights, and this could bite him during the Volkov fight. The Russian has been a champion in big promotions before (Bellator and M-1) and will also be the bigger man in this fight. So ‘Drago’ at 5/4 is my pick for the main event.
𝙃𝙀𝘼𝙑𝙔𝙒𝙀𝙄𝙂𝙃𝙏 contenders step into the spotlight Saturday
@Ciryl_Gane vs
@AlexDragoVolkov
[ #UFCVegas30 | June 26 | Main Card 4pmET on @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/rbq7CGgSzD
— UFC (@ufc) June 24, 2021
Live Dog to Win Clash of the Heavies
The co-main event is a hastily arranged heavyweight fight between light heavyweight mainstay Ovince Saint Preux and heavyweight prospect Tanner Boser. When OSP’s scheduled 205-pound opponent, Maxim Grishin, dropped out, Boser stepped up and Saint Preux agreed to move up a weight class. His last jump to heavyweight didn’t go so well, as he lost to Ben Rothwell in May of 2020. The difference here is I expect him to still be the bigger man in this fight, as Boser and Saint Preux both weigh in the mid 240s when they compete at heavyweight (but Saint Preux is taller and has a longer reach). I’m think OSP’s well rounded game (12 knockouts and eight submissions) will make him a very live dog here at 29/20.
So, is that enough underdogs for you? No?! Well good thing I’ve got a few more for you up my sleeve. Kennedy Nzechukwu and Danilo Marques are scheduled for a light heavyweight battle to headline the prelim portion on Saturday night. Marques is at 21/20, and I like him at this number. Nzechukwu is taking this fight on short notice, which is not conducive to winning (short notice fighters have only won 38% of their fights since the start of 2020). Plus, Marques is much younger (seven years) and a far better grappler, which I expect him to ride to victory here.
‘Loser Leaves Town’ as Lightweights Collide
Finally, we go to the curtain jerker for our last underdog. Lightweights Yancy Medeiros and Damir Hadzovic are clashing in what could be a “loser leaves town” match. Medeiros has lost three straight fights while Hadzovic has lost two straight, so the man who takes the L on Saturday night could be looking for employment elsewhere. And sorry Mr. Hadzovic, but I’m predicting that man will be you. There’s a good chance this fight turns into a slugfest, which Medeiros is more well equipped to win. ‘The Kid’ at 6/5 is the choice.
My lock pick of the week is Shavkat Rakhmonov in his welterweight fight against Michel Prazeres. The 13-0 Rakhmonov is the real deal, having finished all his past pro fights (seven knockouts, six submissions), including a submission victory in his UFC debut. Plus, check out these numbers – he’s seven inches taller, has a 10-inch reach advantage, and is 13 years younger than Prazeres. While Rakhmonov at 2/7 won’t win you much, it’s pretty much a sure thing.
*All odds correct at time of writing.