Group F concludes on Wednesday evening and it could spell the end of the road for one of the big boys.
Although the tournament’s expansion to 24 teams in 2016 has made things significantly more generous in that 16 nations now advance, either three-time winners Germany or holders Portugal could depart, depending on their results and those elsewhere.
The Selecao face world champions France but Die Mannschaft will expect to take care of their side of the bargain by beating plucky Hungary in Munich.
Germany Have Risen From Their France Low
Doubts were raised over Germany coming into Euro 2020, with a mixed run of form, ever since winning the 2014 World Cup, really, piling the pressure on boss Joachim Low in his final tournament.
A lacklustre display in their opening 1-0 defeat to France suggested they were well below the level of the real contenders but they bounced back with a brilliant performance in beating Portugal 4-2 on Saturday.
Hungary lost their opener 3-0 to the Portuguese but played with spirit and that courage was rewarded over the weekend as they held Les Bleus to a 1-1 draw.
Four of their starting XI against the French play their club football in Germany so will not fear a trip to Munich’s Allianz Arena if Marco Rossi decides to stick with the formula.
However, Germany are the vast favourites at 4/23 and it might be worth pushing for that extra value, with Die Mannschaft 20/29 to win to zero.
Die Mannschaft Need to Show Control
A clean sheet would be timely for the Germans after looking porous against France and occasionally losing concentration at times against Portugal.
The old cliche is one of them being efficient but while the team that won the World Cup in 2014 was known for playing fine attacking football, they were also very good at the back.
In fact, they kept four clean sheets in their seven games in Brazil and the departing coach’s focus on improving his defence is perhaps personified by bowing to public pressure by recalling one of the heroes of seven years ago, Mats Hummels.
Hummels put through his own net in the opening defeat to France but at 32, brings a calm and experience absent in some of his teammates. Crucially, he looks set to be fit on Wednesday after returning to training following a knock against the Portuguese.
A shutout is likely and provides punters with a chance to peruse the correct score markets. Expect Germany to dominate the play, but maybe keep something back for the last-16 where they are expected to face England, and 5/1 on a 2-0 win for Germany looks a satisfactory price.
Goretzka Goal?
Not only did Low recall Hummels ahead of the tournament, but he also reintroduced the mighty Thomas Muller.
Now 31, Muller continues to bewilder defenders with his ungainly style but remains incredibly effective.
To date, his build-up play has been a big feature of Germany’s performances but he is likely to miss this game through a knee injury and that could open the door for club colleague Leon Goretzka.
Playing in his home stadium, the Bayern Munich man will not be cowed by his surroundings and, after shaking off a recurring thigh problem looked good when he came on for the final 17 minutes against the Selecao.
With the man he replaced, Ilkay Gundogan, expected to be fit, Goretzka should be allowed more freedom than usually afforded to him at club level on Wednesday and says he is ready to “play the Thomas Muller role”.
The 26-year-old is fresh off a season where he has netted 10 times for club and country. He is 23/10 in the anytime goalscorer market and 6/1 to break the deadlock.
*All odds correct at time of writing.
