Formula 1 returns to its spiritual home of France this weekend for round seven of what is fast becoming the most enthralling seasons of the hybrid era. Mercedes have, quelle surprise, dominated this Grand Prix since its return to the schedule in 2018 but their mantle as top dogs is under serious threat from Red Bull, who look set to end the Silver Arrows’ love affair with the Paul Ricard circuit.
This was one crazy start!
And we had every angle covered
#FrenchGP
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— Formula 1 (@F1) June 14, 2021
Lewis Hamilton has won the last two editions of the French Grand Prix and is the 23/20 favourite entering the weekend, while Drivers’ championship leader Verstappen is 13/10 to claim his third victory of the year. Despite Mercedes previous success, getting behind the Dutchman to extend his four-point lead in the standings looks the smart play.
Mercedes With Plenty to Prove
Neither Verstappen or Hamilton enjoyed F1’s last outing in Baku, a tyre failure costing Verstappen what looked a certain victory, before a rare mistake from his British rivalry saw him drop out of the chequered flag picture. However, the fact Hamilton had even got himself in a position to win was testament to his supreme driving skills with Mercedes having struggled for pace all weekend in Azerbaijan.
His Silver Arrows team mate Valtteri Bottas, who described himself as a “sitting duck” in Baku, could only muster P12 as, for the second race running, Mercedes found themselves trailing behind the Red Bulls. The reigning Constructors’ champions will hope a move away from the street circuits back to the more traditional tracks will pay dividends, particularly at a venue where they have performed so well in the past.
Mercedes have locked out the front of the grid at the last two French Grands Prix and that has proven to be vital with overtaking places at the Paul Ricard few and far between. Their performances in qualifying had been good before Baku and Monaco, Hamilton taking two pole positions previously, but they face a serious fight in France with a three-way battle likely.
Leclerc the Joker in the Pack
While a Red Bull or Mercedes winner is the most likely outcome to Sunday’s race, Ferrari will hope to throw a spanner in the works. Charles Leclerc has taken pole position in the last two races with the Scuderia showing exceptional one-lap pace. The Monegasque, who is a 28/1 chance this weekend, has lacked the race pace to convert those front row starts into wins but he could certainly play a part in the story of this race if he produces another strong Saturday show.
Ferrari have a strong history at this track and have secured a podium finish in the last two visits to Le Castellet, with a hat-trick not out of the question, especially if Bottas struggles again. McLaren might also feel they have a shot at a podium if they get the rub of the green with Lando Norris having finished third twice this year already. Both cars for the Woking-based outfit finished in the points the last time F1 staged a French Grand Prix in 2019.
Red Bull to Reign Supreme
The midfield battle could become the most interesting part of the race if Red Bull and Mercedes stay on their respective trajectories. The Red Bulls were significantly quicker than their title rivals in Baku as Sergio Perez took the win after Verstappen’s blowout. Qualifying will be vital to deciding the outcome of this race and if Red Bull can secure a spot on the front row, it is tough to look past them going on to dominate.
*All odds correct at time of writing