Things are getting serious for the German national football team. Just over a week before their own opening match at EURO 2021, coach Jogi Löw’s team has its last test on the agenda. On Monday evening, the DFB team will face the outsiders from Latvia in Düsseldorf. After last week’s 1:1 against Denmark, they are now looking for a solid win.
If you look at the odds before the match between Germany and Latvia, there is no doubt that the 2014 world champions are the clear favourites. The Interwetten app, for example, offers odds of 1.02 on the Germans to win at home. These top odds correspond to an implicit probability of victory of 97% and thus offer no value whatsoever.
It is more interesting to look at the number of goals, because although the qualitative differences between the two teams are obvious, it is somewhat surprising that many bookmakers are predicting five or more goals in the match between Germany and Latvia. We don’t expect such a shooting match on Monday evening, especially since the Baltic team delivered respectable results against Holland (0:2) or Turkey (3:3) in the current calendar year.
Regardless of how high the expected victory ultimately turns out, we are curious to see which formation the national coach will trust. In this respect, the dress rehearsal should be a good indication of who Jogi Löw will rely on in the opening match against France next week.
Prediction & Live Odds for Germany vs. Latvia
The last test before the start of the European Championship awaits the German national football team on Monday evening at 20:45. After the not entirely satisfactory 1-1 draw against Denmark last Wednesday, the DFB team now wants to boost its self-confidence and send an exclamation mark to the competition with an unchallenged victory.
However, we think it is exaggerated that the betting odds between Germany and Latvia suggest a crushing victory with a difference of four or more goals. Of course, there is an immense difference in quality between the two teams, but in view of the recent performances of Löw’s team and also the Balts, we think a victory with a maximum three-goal lead is more realistic.
Latvia lost only 2-0 to Holland in 2021 and even earned a point in a 3-3 draw with Turkey. The Germans, meanwhile, even lost to North Macedonia and have not scored four goals in a single friendly since 2016.
Therefore, we try it on Monday evening in the match Germany vs. Latvia with the bet on a maximum of four goals in the course of the game. Our odds comparison offers odds of up to 1.98 for the under 4.5 goals.
Germany – Statistics & current form
For many Germans, the great European Championship euphoria may not yet be in the air. On the one hand, this could be due to the enormous saturation of football over the entire season, but on the other hand, it is also due to the average performance of the domestic national team. In the past, the DFB team was regularly one of the potential title contenders, but at the moment “Jogi’s boys” are considered to have at most outsider’s chances at the 2021 European Championship.
The fact that the Germans are currently lacking the necessary consistency and are not being rewarded for some good or dominant performances has become clear in the 2021 calendar year to date. The two most recent matches could not be won. Against North Macedonia in the World Cup qualifier, “the team” disgraced itself to the bone with a 1:2 defeat, and the first friendly match about a week ago against Denmark, which ended in a 1-1 draw, was by no means a footballing spectacle, despite a decent 60 minutes.
DFB eleven last scored four goals in a friendly match in March 2016.
But that is exactly what the coaching team is hoping for on Monday evening in Düsseldorf. The Latvians were deliberately chosen as an opponent that the DFB team should usually defeat with ease. The 2014 world champions are determined to start the last week of preparation before the tournament with a sense of achievement. Nevertheless, betting on a higher success of the favourite between Germany and Latvia is associated with plenty of risk.
For example, anyone aiming for a Germany vs. Latvia prediction of over 4.5 goals should be aware that the last time Löw’s team scored four goals in a friendly match was in 2016. The 4:1 win over Italy five years ago was also one of only two international matches on a friendly basis in which the aforementioned mark was broken. Consequently, it would be very surprising if the 1000 fans in Düsseldorf were to see five or more goals in the course of the match.
In terms of personnel, the experts assume that the national coach will field a team that will come close to the one that is supposed to pull the coals out of the fire in Group F at the 2021 European Championship. Havertz, Werner, Rüdiger and Gündogan could all slide into the starting eleven. Leon Goretzka is still not available. Toni Kroos and Jamal Musiala are also injured, so no major risk should be taken with them.
Germany’s likely line-up:
Neuer; Süle, Rüdiger, Hummels, Günter; Neuhaus, Kimmich, Gündogan; Havertz, Müller, Werner
Latvia – Statistics & Current Form
In 2004, the Latvian national team celebrated by far its greatest success in the history of the association. For the first and only time, the Latvians mastered the qualification for the European Championship finals, but failed to finish last in a group with Holland, Germany and the Czech Republic. Since then, the development of the football dwarf from northern Europe has stagnated. They are now only 138th in the FIFA world rankings.
In view of these facts and figures, it is not surprising at first glance that such low odds are offered on a win for the DFB team between Germany and Latvia. However, the last results should also be taken into account. Here, the team of coach Dainis Kazakevics was quite convincing.
Latvia with good performances in 2021
In the World Cup qualifiers, for example, the Latvians took a sensational point from Turkey in a 3:3 draw and also held their own for a surprisingly long time in the 2:0 defeat against Holland. The goals of the offensively strong Oranje only came after a good half hour and after almost 70 minutes of play. The 2-1 defeat against Montenegro was also closer than expected. There should be no lack of self-confidence after the 3-1 win against Lithuania the previous week.
Although a prediction of a point win for the underdogs in the Germany vs. Latvia clash on Monday evening is still highly utopian, we do not believe in a hefty defeat with a four or even five-goal difference either. At the tested bookmaker ComeOn, attractive quotes on the handicap (+3.5) can be played. In this context, it is also interesting to note that since 2018, the over 4.5 has only been broken in four of 34 international matches involving Latvia.
Predicted line-up of Latvia:
Ozols; Savalnieks, Cernomordijs, Oss, Jurkovskis; Emsis, Zjuzins; Kamess, Ikaunieks, Ciganiks; Uldrikis
