The three relegated teams in the Premier League have already been decided a few matchdays before the end of the season, but the three promoted teams have not yet been decided. Although the Championship has already completed the regular 46-game season, the third promoted team will only be determined in the play-offs. On Monday, the first leg of the play-off semi-finals is on the agenda – the clash between Barnsley and Swansea will take place at the Oakwell Stadium.
The teams finished fifth and fourth in the final table of the toughest second division in the world, separated by just two points. Although head coach Valerien Ismael’s Tykes were ranked behind the Wales side, home advantage means victory is considered the most likely outcome on the home side.
For the first leg between Barnsley and Swansea, betting odds of only 2.15 are offered for a home win. At first glance, these betting odds do not seem particularly lucrative. Whether this impression is deceptive, you can read in the following lines. The match starts on Monday evening at 9:15 pm.
Prediction & Live Odds for Barnsley vs. Swansea
Thanks to the lavish TV contract, participation in the Premier League would result in a real windfall – revenues of almost 200 million euros await the promoted team. Accordingly, both teams will choose little risk and a game with many goal chances is not to be expected.
The clear role of favourites for the hosts, however, is quite surprising. The two season duels in 2020/21 as well as the experience and the basic quality speak for the guests.
With Barnsley against Swansea, a prediction on the visitors is very lucrative. However, Swansea would probably also be happy with a draw and therefore the “Draw No Bet” bet on the Welsh guests (2 DNB) ✅ is recommended to minimise the risk.
Barnsley – Statistics & Current Form
Football sometimes writes crazy stories – the last twelve months of the tykes from Barnsley definitely belong in this category. Hardly anyone would have thought it possible before the last two games of last season, but Barnsley miraculously saved themselves.
Catching up thanks to nine wins in a row
Fans were secretly expecting another season in the bottom third of the table and staying in the league was once again the declared aim. After all, Barnsley have one of the smallest budgets in the Championship and can’t make any big jumps in the transfer market.
After 16 matchdays, Valerien Ismael’s team – who replaced the departing Austrian Gerhard Struber – was in 17th place and thus fully on target. Subsequently, the underdogs played themselves into a frenzy and consistently picked up points.
The period between mid-February and mid-March was outstanding, when Barnsley won nine league games in a row and fought their way towards the promotion places. On matchday 35, the underdogs climbed to a top six spot for the first time and defended it until the end of the season.
Young no-name team
Last season’s near-relegation team was not on anyone’s radar. In contrast to many other clubs, there is actually no really well-known player in the Tykes’ line-up. According to current market values, only five teams had a lower market value than Barnsley.
Barnsley have a very young team. The two Austrian legionaries Michael Sollbauer (31) and Dominik Frieser (27) are the two oldest players in the squad. The majority of the players are between 20 and 24 years old and have hardly any experience at this level.
But as a team, Barnsley is very compact and therefore an extremely unpleasant opponent. Nevertheless, betting on a home win in the first leg between Barnsley and Swansea seems too risky. The Welsh team should be rated higher in terms of quality.
Barnsley’s likely line-up:
Collins – Helik, Andersen, Sibbick – Styles, Palmer, Mowatt, Brittain – Chaplin, Dike, Woodrow
Swansea – Statistics & Current Form
The club from Wales were already represented in the promotion play-offs last season, but lost out to the “Bees” from Brentford in the semi-finals with a total score of 2:3.
In the regular season 2020/21, Steve Cooper’s team was more successful than in the previous season and collected a total of ten points more. However, direct promotion was once again denied.
The results have been manageable lately
For a long time, a direct return to the PL was within the realms of possibility, after all, Swansea were still in the coveted second place in the table after 36 match days. But in the last two months the team slid into crisis and squandered this chance.
Swansea won only two of their last ten Championship games. In the meantime, the Cooper eleven had to cope with four defeats in a row.
However, the last few games should be taken with a pinch of salt, because at the latest when it became clear that direct promotion was no longer possible, the team was rotated. With 46 matchdays, there were almost exclusively English weeks and the strain was accordingly enormous. The stress management in the last few weeks should have rested the top players to make the really big goal a reality.
An average of 2.07 goals per game
The second division in England does not have the reputation of being “the toughest second division in the world” for nothing. This is partly due to the fixture list, but also to the way the Championship is played. Fighting and passion are paramount, while the level of play is often manageable.
Accordingly, bets on an Under 2.5 in the Championship are always a good choice. Only 40.9 per cent of the games ended with three or more goals, at Swansea it was even only 30 per cent of the games. Due to the very good defence (only 39 goals conceded in 46 games), often only one goal was enough for success. 56 goals are the lowest value of the four play-off participants.
In the first leg between Barsnley and Swansea there are enough arguments for the prediction on the under 2.5 as well as that not both teams will score.
Predicted Swansea line-up:
Woodman – Bidwell, Guehi, Bennett, Roberts – Fulton, Grimes – Hourihane – Lowe, Cullen, Ayew