Despite the pandemic, injuries, visa issues – you name it – trying their hardest to derail it, this Saturday’s UFC 256 fight card is still a solid one. Even before this week began, THREE title fights that were originally scheduled to take place this weekend fell off the card. Then, once the event got closer, a slew of positive COVID-19 test results sidelined a bunch of fighters, and in turn, a bunch of fights.
What we’re left with, as stated above, is still a pretty strong fight lineup, headlined by a UFC Flyweight Championship bout between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno. Avid readers of this column (millions strong) will note that I just wrote about Figueiredo three weeks ago, as he headlined UFC 255. Moreno also fought on that card. This is indeed the fastest turnaround for a UFC title fight in history. But, with all the aforementioned fights falling through, it was done by necessity, and made possible by both of this week’s headliners escaping UFC 255 without any significant physical damage.
Current champ ‘Daico’ is a very strong betting favourite over at MansionBet heading into this one, currently sitting at 5/19. He’s my pick to win this fight as well. In fact, he’s such a wrecking ball, having only lost once in 21 pro fights, that he’s my pick to beat any 125-pound fighter on the planet at this point, until I’m proven wrong. Already a feared striker, with nine career knockouts, he’s shown off a formidable grappling game as of late, winning his last two, and three of four, via submission. While challenger Moreno is a grappling specialist (10 of 18 pro wins coming via submission), he probably won’t get tapped out by Figueiredo. However, he also has a habit of eating a lot of strikes in the early going of fights. With someone who hits like the champ, that is not a smart gameplan. Figueiredo is the pick, and you might want to lay a prop of him winning via early stoppage.
Tony Ferguson v Charles Oliveira
The co-main event sees the surging lightweight Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira finally get a “big name” fight. The Brazilian grappling ace has won seven straight fights, all via finish, and has stopped 27 of his 29 pro wins (eight knockouts, 19 submissions). Unfortunately for him, his first real significant step up in competition is Tony Ferguson. Ferguson is also a finisher (12 KO’s, eight submissions), and famously had won 12 straight fights before being brutalized over five rounds by Justin Gaethje earlier this year. While it appears like ‘El Cucuy’ is starting to deteriorate, his relentless pace and wild, brawling style will cause Oliveira problems, who has shown in the past he can be broken and bullied. Ferguson at 8/15 is my recommendation.
Underdogs to Watch
You want some underdogs? While I’ve got some for you. Renato Moicano, fighting third from the top on Saturday night, is a 5/4 underdog in his lightweight battle with Rafael Fiziev. Moicano will be the bigger man when the two meet in the cage, and he also has the striking stats in his favour, which my research has shown is the #1 determinant in picking a winner going into a fight (70% success rate). I’ll gladly take this plus money.
I also like grizzled veteran Cub Swanson at 13/10 in his fight against Daniel Pineda. Swanson looked great in his last fight, way back in October 2019, becoming the only man to defeat Kron Gracie thus far. He will have that always important striking advantage in this fight, as well as a slight size advantage over Pineda. While Pineda won his last fight, he’s been an inconsistent fighter over his career, already having been cut by the UFC once before.
*All odds correct at time of writing.