Halfway through the season already, takes forever to get here and then flies past when we’re in it. 1-1-1 last week, the Gallup call was poor, I will not be touching anything to do with the Cowboys for the rest of the season, a push on the Browns handicap as they missed the extra point which would have won it for us, and Alvin Kamara easily went over his receiving yards as he may well do this week as well with the lack of pass-catchers available for the Saints.
It’s meant to be a windy weekend in quite a few games today, the totals have dropped significantly in Cleveland, Buffalo, Green Bay due to it. Have a look at nflweather.com for latest news on what’s going on at games. Generally 20-25 mph is the lower limit which affects passing games and leads to lower scoring. Something to be aware of.
Spread
A few that I like this week and a few which have ticked over that 3 points which makes me hesitate. The Chargers were 2.5 now 3.5, although 3 is available at 4/5. I don’t mind the Seahawks but they’ve let me down a few times now. The Lions are in consideration hosting the Colts. The Chiefs are 20 point favourites against the Jets, the only time a 20+ point spread has been covered was in 1976, the last time there was a spread this large was 2013 where the Peyton Manning Broncos failed to cover. I think I’ll go for the Rams this week.
I’ll get the negatives out of the way first, they travel across the country on a short week to take on the 3 win Dolphins (wins against the two worst teams in the league and the 49ers). The positives though, it’s their 4th journey to the East coast, they’ve won 2 of 3 so far, and they’re going up against a rookie QB making his first start. Starting against Aaron Donald is not going to be easy for him and Jalen Ramsey should be able to take away one of his targets for the game. The Rams should be able to run the ball well and I think that’s all they’ll need to do. It is over the 3 points, but I think they’ll be comfortable.
LA Rams -3.5 @ 1.90 (most places)
Player props
Quite a lot of reception lines which look good today, I think they’re all fairly low because of the wind expected in a lot of games, the likes of 3.5 for Mark Andrews and Cole Beasley would usually be fine. I was looking at longest reception bets too, Tee Higgins o20.5 for his longest is tempting, he’s gone over that in 4 games in a row now, but again, the weather could be an issue. So I’m going to plump for LeVeon Bell getting revenge on the team he chose to ruin his career for the year and a bit. The question is rush yards or receiving yards. The lines have gone up a few yards each from Friday but still look good. 14.5 now for rec. yards, but I’ll go for over 43.5 rush yards available at 1.83 on Skybet and William Hill. He had 39 yards from 6 carries last week in his first game with the Chiefs. I expect him to get more carries in this one against possibly the worst team in history, 20 point underdogs the Jets. I expect the Chiefs to run out easy winners and have the ability to rest their rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire
LeVeon Bell o43.5 rush yards – 1.83 (Skybet/WillHill)
TD Scorer
I had a little bit of research done in the week, tight ends have scored 29% of the receiving touchdowns this year, the highest percentage it’s been at this point of the season, and those guys are usually priced quite nicely. The likes of Big Mo Alie-Cox (you guys know I like him) and Trey Burton for the Colts, Harrison Bryant/David Njoku for the Browns, Everett or Higbee for the Rams, Eric Ebron, Mark Andrews in that Steelers v Ravens game. All priced fairly nicely for the week, but I’ll go back to Tennessee and pick Jonnu Smith at 2.75 on Skybet. They’re playing the Bengals who have given up 6 scores to the position over the last 3 weeks including 3 to the Browns in their last game. Jonnu has 5 TDs so far this season and the Titans love targeting the Tight end in the redzone. He gets a good matchup and a team who like throwing to him.
Jonnu Smith anytime TD – 2.75 (Skybet)
Summary
- Rams -3.5 – 1.90 (everywhere)
- Bell o43.5 rush yards – 1.83 (Skybet/Willhill)
- Jonnu Smith anytime – 2.75 (Skybet)
Good Luck with your bets this weekend, hopefully the weather doesn’t mess the games up too much and I look forward to seeing what everyone else is on.
Adam (@TouchdownTips; tdtips.com)
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