PSA up first – REMEMBER THE GAMES KICK OFF AT 1700 IN THE UK TONIGHT.
Could have been better last week with a different tight end scoring for the Ravens, but we hit 2 out of 3 selections for some profit at least. It was the third consecutive week I’ve hit the spread bet, taking spreads to 6 out of 7 spread winners for the season so far. Cannae complain about that record! The best try to hit 53% to make profit…
Another little PSA – Meant to be 3-5 inches of snow in Denver so be wary is you’re backing any props in that game, if it gets back it should be a nailed on under game, the line is depressed already though so just keep an eye on it.
Spread bet
There’s actually quite a few lines I like this week, the Steelers now getting points in Tennessee, The Panthers on the road in New Orleans, liked it at 7, not so much at 6.5 as it is now. The Chargers -7 hosting the Jags, The Seahawks in the evening game should cover, and the Cowboys, but they screwed me last week, so maybe not so much.
However I’m going to take the Browns -3 against my Bengals. I’m worried this could be a bit of a blow out for the Browns. They got smashed last week by the Steelers, but things weren’t good for them, Baker Mayfield is poor under pressure at the best of time, but when nursing a bruised/cracked rib against the best pass rush in the league it was no surprise to see him struggle. It’s different this week though the Bengals didn’t register a sack against the Browns in their first matchup of the season so he should have time, while their wide receivers will have an easier night with the Bengals missing their best cornerback (William Jackson out) – They ran all over the Bengals in the first game, Nick Chubb is out, so it would be as emphatic there, but Kareem Hunt is a very good back himself.
The Bengals are without Joe Mixon as well in their backfield, it leaves Gio Bernard to carry the load, I love Gio but he’s not been great this season so they probably won’t be able to run much, which is fine, Joe Burrow is good and has weapons in Boyd, Green and Higgins who’s stepped up in recent weeks. They should still put up points, but there’s a whiff of things not being Sympatico in the Jungle recently and I’m worried the coaching staff are losing the team. They’ve mis-treated big players like Dunlap and Geno and I think things could turn nasty there.
Browns -3 (best priced 1.87 on 888)
Player prop
I had a ton of props to pick from last week, struggling a little for them this week though. There are some interesting lines if you fancy a bit of a risk, Lev Bell o10.5 rec. yards on his debut for the Chiefs, if you feel the Lions are sensible then D’Andre Swift rush yards is at 33.5, Joe Burrow rush yards at 11.5 is tempting to me, Keenan Allen o6.5 receptions has been a good bet with Herbert but I worry about his health after leaving the game last time out, Christian Kirk o46.5 is tempting too after his breakout last week and Deandre Hopkins dinged up a little.
But for this post I’ll stick to possibly the best player in the league to go over his receiving yards – Alvin Kamara has been brilliant this year and has had to do it all for the Saints with Michael Thomas being out of the line-up. Thomas was expected to be back this week but misses out with a new injury, as does Emmanuel Sanders leaving them short of pass catchers, Trequan Smith probably the WR1 while Jared Cook should get more of the ball as well.
His line is set at 55.5 and he’s gone over that in 3 of their 5 games this year, including 74 in their last game against the Chargers, it should be a high scoring game and I think they’ll have to keep pushing, so I’m good to pick this one.
Alvin Kamara o55.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (skybet/365)
TD Scorer
There should have been a lot of value in the TD market this week with a lot of second string players getting chances to show their worth but the crafty bookies have been quick to adjust and quite a few I thought would be double-digits are short. The likes of AJ Dillon for the Packers, Gio/Perine/Williams for the Bengals, James O’Shaughnessy for the Jags, the 49ers RBs are all a touch short. There’s probably a bit of value in Deonte Harris for the Saints at 6/1 and possibly Josh Hill or Adam Trautman as TE2 for them such are their troubles at pass catchers. – Tyler Kroft is the only TE left in Buffalo after the rest were ruled out with Covid worries, Stefon Diggs is priced well against at plus odds against the Jets this week. At least one of the Titans tight ends will score against the Steelers, Jonnu is 9/4, Firkser who scored last week at 6/1.
I’m going to take a bit of a long shot on Michael Gallup getting his second TD of the season for the Cowboys against Washington. The Cowboys were very publicly humiliated hosting the Cardinals on Monday night, they lost yet another offensive lineman during the game, and admittedly that’s a big worry against a team who are strongest at pass rush, however. That was prime time and Andy Daltons first game for the ‘boys. He’s famously awful in primetime. He seems to like Gallup having closed out the game against the Giants with passes to him and he found him in the endzone last week only for Gallup to drop it. The targets are there and I think the Cowboys will be fine this week.
Michael Gallup anytime TD – 4.75 (Uni/888)
Summary
- Cleveland Browns -3 @ 1.87 on 888
- Alvin Kamara o55.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (Skybet/365/Hills)
- Michael Gallup anytime TD – 4.75 (Uni/888) 4.5 at Hills if you’re restricted on 888 as most people seem to be
I’ve been busy on my site (tdtips.com) if you want to read more previews.
Good luck with whatever you’re on, I’ve had a dabble on a teaser this week which I don’t tend to do, but getting the Chargers -1, Chiefs -1 and Bills -4 was too good to say no to.
Adam (@TouchdownTips)
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