Well, hit the spread and the total on Sunday, nothing on the props though, Swift got the yardage but no score, Brown had 42 yards at the half, nothing afterwards and Firkser didn’t get involved in the redzone, Jonnu had 2 TDs though, Titans love the tight ends.
Dolphins (+3) @ Jaguars: 49
The Dolphins come into this one 0-2 having lost to the Pats in the opener and a close one to the Bills on Sunday. They played the Bills close in fairness and should take some confidence from that performance.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the man at QB for them after a good year last year, he does what he does, some great games, some not so great as he’s shown already this year, 3 INTs, 0 TDs vs the Patriots in week 1, 2 TDs, 0 INTs vs the Bills this last week and 328 yards. He spreads the ball around well, this week he got Mike Gesicki to 130 yards and Gesicki faces a decent matchup in this one against a Jags team who has conceded a fair few yards to Tight ends in the first two games of the year. Devante Parker still leads the WR group although they gave Isaiah Ford a lot of targets on Sunday. Preston Williams is the deep threat for them.
They’re confusing at RB, having signed Jordan Howard and Matt Breida over the summer, but now seemingly giving Myles Gaskin the bulk of the carries and receptions from the position. Howards get the goal-line carries though.
The Jags sit at 1-1, a heck of a lot better than most expected coming into the season having beaten the Colts in the opener and a narrow loss to the Titans at the weekend. Gardner Minshew is the smoothest looking mofo in the game with his mullet and his tash. I’ll be honest I thought he was a fad, all “style” and not much else, but he’s impressed me this year completing 19/20 in week 1 and throwing for 328 yards and 3 TDs last week against a solid Titans defense.
He will be without DJ Chark tonight though which is a loss, he had 1,000 yards and 8 TDs last season, but Keelan Cole has had a score in each game and I assume will be the WR1 in this one. Chris Conley and Laviska Shenault get a bump up as a result and are probably worth a look over their yard lines (35.5 and 42.5 respectively) Collin Johnson might be worth a long-shot for a TD, he had an endzone look at the weekend and is a big lad. Tyler Eifert is a big lad too and has history with Jay Gruden who is the OC in Jacksonville now, he scored at the weekend and may well get a little more tonight with Chark out although the Pats through two games have only given up 2 receptions to the TE.
Rookie James Robinson has carried the ball well and it looks like they may have been right to cut Leonard Fournette in pre-season with him waiting in the wings. He scored his first TD at the weekend and ran for over 100 yards.
Summary
I won’t be taking anything on the spread here, even without the Chark news I was apprehensive on it, I think the Jags being fave by 3 is about right and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see them win by that margin. I could also see the Dolphins getting the win, so I’m leaving it alone.
I do think there will be points though, so I’ll take the over 49 even though it’s gone up a couple of points since Monday. These are the 2 worst pass defenses in the league through two weeks according to DVOA and both QBs like to throw it about.
Bets
- Over 49 points – 10/11 (Most)
- Chris Conley o35.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (365/Hills)
- Collin Johnson anytime 11/1 (Skybet) – HALF STAKE
Good Luck if you’re on.
Adam (@TouchdownTips)
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