A fairly successful start to the NFL season – 3.20 points of profit from opening weekend, not exactly huge, but a start nonetheless – I apologise for messing up the link for the P/L spreadsheet, turns out I was copying the wrong thing… MrFixIt P/L – I believe that should work this week. I’ll stick to the same format as last week.
Longer previews available on my site – TouchdownTips if you’re interested.
Spread
A few to choose from this week I like the Chiefs and Ravens both to cover although they’re getting close to unbackable at the lines available now, I quite like the Lions to cover in GB, they have covered 4 of their last 5 trips to Lambeau including a 1 point loss last season, but their defense isn’t great and Rodgers ripped the Vikings apart last week.
So it’s the team playing the Vikings this week I’m looking to here. The Colts -3 at home. The Vikings defense is a lot of younger players with little experience and it showed. Coach Zimmer will have laid into them during the week but I think it will take a few weeks for them to settle into rhythm and the Colts should be able to take advantage, they’ve got the best offensive line in the league and Philip Rivers is a good QB. Jonathan Taylor takes over at RB with Marlon Mack out for the season, he was a machine in college and I like over on all his lines today, rushing and receiving. The Vikings should be able to put up points though and Dalvin Cook is Evens on Skybet, Taylor is 11/10 (Both to score is 10/3) – Colts -3
Total
I think a few of the games mentioned above should go over their totals, the Lions v Packers, Vikings v Colts should both go over. There’s on game that jumps out though and it’s the highest total on the board as the Falcons travel to Dallas. The number has risen all week but there will be points in this one. The Cowboys lost LVE to a collarbone injury and their secondary is poor while the Falcons allowed 38 at home to the Seahawks last week and led the league in passing yards in week one. Falcons v Cowboys over 53.5
Player prop
Quite a few I like here as well actually. As said above, over on everything Jonathan Taylor, if you want a short priced one for an acca I don’t see how Calvin Ridley o4.5 receptions doesn’t hit (best priced 1.65 on Will Hill); I quite like Zack Moss o11.5 receiving yards for the Bills, but it’s a little dodgy with little tape on him. Raheem Mostert o9.5 receiving yards for the 49ers against the Jets, the Jets actually have a pretty decent run defense, so it makes sense that Shanahan will plan to use him through the air as well. But the one I’ll officially record is Marquise Brown o48.5 receiving yards (Ladbrokes) for the Ravens. He had 5 receptions for 101 yards against the Browns in week one, he’s the leading target of the WRs in Baltimore and can take it to the house from anywhere, he faces another poor secondary this week in Houston and I think he’ll be able to get near the century again. – Marquise Brown o48.5 receiving yards (Ladbrokes)
Touchdown Scorers (a short and a long)
As said above Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor are really well priced for the Vikings v Colts game. I like the TD Treble on Skybet today, think that’s a cracking price for the three they’ve got listed. I think I’ll be plumping for D’Andre Swift anytime at 7/2 (365) He scored one last week and should have had 2 but dropped the game winner at the buzzer. The one he got was on the ground and the one he should have had was through the air, so they’re clearly fine to use him in the rushing and passing game. Kerryon Johnson doesn’t seem a factor and Adrian Peterson will get them up and down the field. – The longshot for the weekend, for me, it’s similar to last week in the fact it’s a tight end. Anthony Firkser 10/1 (365) for the Tennessee Titans. He scored a couple in the playoffs and had a couple of targets last week but it was the other two TEs who got the scores, Jonnu Smith and Mycole Pruitt both scoring for the Titans. With AJ Brown out there’s a chance (in my eyes) that Jonnu fills that spot moving Firkser up to TE1. So I think he’ll get redzone looks and I can’t say no at 10/1
Summary
- Colts -3
- Falcons v Cowboys o53.5
- Marquise Brown o48.5 receiving yards (Coral/Ladbrokes) – 49.5 elsewhere is obviously still fine
- D’Andre Swfit anytime – 7/2 (365)
- Anthony Firkser anytime – 10/1 (365)
Good Luck, and look forward to week 2!
By the way if you like player props but get tired of looking for the best line, then check out nflprops.bet for access to our prop comparison spreadsheet.
Cheers, Adam (@TouchdownTips)
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