For the first time in four years, there will be a new Grand Slam champion crowned at the US Open, and following three near-misses, everything looks in place for Austrian ace Dominic Thiem to achieve some well-deserved top-level success.
With Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer absent and world number one Novak Djokovic disqualified in the fourth round, competition in New York was blown wide open and Thiem has made it clear he doesn’t want the opportunity to pass him by.
The Austrian has dropped just one set in recording his six tournament wins – against 2014 US Open hero Marin Cilic – and he has eased to straight-set triumphs over talented trio Daniil Medvedev, Felix Auger Aliassime and Alex De Minaur.
Thiem’s opponent Alexander Zverev, on the other hand, has dropped sets in five of his six Flushing Meadows victories and has been forced to come from behind on three occasions, that is despite having a considerably easier route to the final.
Take Thiem to Prevail in Entertaining Encounter
It is no surprise to see Thiem a 1/4 chance to prevail but punters can eek out some extra value by backing the German youngster to claim a set. Thiem to win 3-1 in sets at 12/5 makes plenty of appeal.
This is not uncharted territory for Thiem given he will be playing in his fourth Grand Slam final. He has twice played second fiddle to Nadal at his beloved French Open and he lost out in an epic five-set battle with Djokovic at the Australian Open earlier this year.
That extra experience may prove crucial against Grand Slam final debutant Zverev, who had gone beyond the quarter-finals of a Major only once until his heroics in New York.
Thiem has won seven of their nine previous meetings and all three of their Grand Slam duels, including at the Australian Open in January.
Only three of their encounters have been decided in straight sets, however, so backing Thiem to oblige but drop a set may be the way to eek out some value.
Thiem beat Zverev in four sets in their latest meeting at the Australian Open earlier this year and he could repeat the trick here at a nice price.
Temperamental Zverev May Start Slowly
Zverev is supremely talented but his temperament can sometimes get the better of him and he found himself two sets down before rallying to secure a semi-final success over Pablo Carreno Busta.
Zverev also dropped the opening set against Adrian Mannarino in the third round and in his quarter-final showdown with Borna Coric, so backing Thiem to take the opener and win the match at 5/9 looks a fair bet.
Only one of Zverev’s six Flushing Meadows assignments have been decided in straight sets, while Thiem has claimed the opening set in all six of his matches.
*All odds correct at time of writing