Well, here we are the precipice of the crucible! (oooo fancy words) – the semi-final, the last game before the big dance, the Championship games. We’ve got a couple of intriguing matchups to look forward to as the 6th seed Tennessee Titans travel to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC finishes with a more predictable matchup as the #2 seed Green Bay Packers take on the #1 seed San Francisco 49ers at Levi Stadium.
Titans -7 @ Chiefs: Total – 53 points.
The Titans are on their 4th consecutive road game against yet another division winner. It’s a terrible spot for them but they’ve overcome so much so far in this post-season that it’s tough to rule them out completely.
They’re here quite literally on the back of Derrick Henry who has 96 carries in 3 weeks for 588 yards at 6.1 yards a go, he became the first player to have 175+ rush yards in 3 consecutive games. He’s been able to impose his will on the opposition and is very difficult to bring down as Earl Thomas found out last week. I do feel though that they need positive game script to use the gameplan that has worked so well so far in the playoffs and I don’t think they’ll get that in this game.
The Chiefs were 24-0 in the first quarter last week but it was almost entirely predicated on their mistakes, once they cut them out they smashed the Texans to bits including 3 TDs in 3 minutes and 27 seconds. Travis Kelce became the first player in history to have 3 receiving TDs in one quarter of a game. He may continue that form into this one as the Titans allowed 9 TDs and the 7th most yards to the position in the regular season.
Paddy ‘Homes didn’t once look worried during the game last week and was brilliant as he led the team to SEVEN consecutive TD drives and finished with the most rushing yards. Damien Williams fits this team so much better than any other back on the roster in both the rushing and running game, he finished with not a huge amount of yardage but 3 total TDs and he’ll have a good game in this one as well.
I swore this would be more to the point than the stuff on my site (www.tdtips.com) So lets get to the point.
The Titans haven’t attempted a field goal since week 15, they’ve not scored a field goal since week 13. They’re 100% on Redzone (to TD) conversion in their last 3 games and 78% during the whole season. That’s an incredible number.
Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 2 or more TDs in 10 of his 12 games as starter for the Titans. He will likely have to be more involved than he has through the playoffs in this one as I’d expect the Titans to be trailing.
Bets;
- Titans u1.5 field goals – 1.80 (Bet365)
- Ryan Tannehill o1.5 passing TDs – 2.20(Bet365)
- LONGSHOT – Anthony Firkser – 11/1 (Uni/888) – HALF STAKE.
Packers @ 49ers
The Pack won at home to the Seahawks, almost inevitably in a one score game as both have been involved in all season, they took the lead early and saw it out for the win come the final whistle. Their first quarter performance has been great all season while the second half/4th quarter has been pretty atrocious.
San Francisco put in a brilliant performance against a tired Vikings team limiting them to a 203 yards of total offense and Dalvin Cook to the lowest figures of his young career. They were constantly in the backfield with each of their first round drafted defensive line recording at least one sack and their linebacker crew is one of the quickest and best in the league. They were brilliant in all areas last week, frankly.
One area they did struggle a little with was QB, I’m still not sold on Jimmy Gee despite his impressive W/L record. I’m sorry and I know i’m probably wrong but he just doesn’t impress me much. Except his handsomeness of course, he is a fine looking man… But they took the ball out of his hands last week and ran it for most of the second half of the game. Finishing the game with 47 rush attempts compared to 19 pass attempts. I don’t think Jimmy can win you a game, however I do think he can lose the game for the 49ers.
The defensive lines of both teams have been brilliant this year, the 49ers have a fully fit roster coming into this which means that Dee Ford is a go which means great things for all their pass rushers while the Packers have the Smith brothers who they signed in free agency. They finished the season with 25.5 sacks between them and racked up 2 each last week.
My boy Kendrick Bourne has a solid identity in this offense as a red zone target. He scored 5 TDs from 6 red zone receptions in the regular season and notched another last week, I’m surprised he’s still as high as 3/1 to score anytime in this one, the highest of the 3 main WR targets.
Stat time – The last game the Packers won as 7 or more point underdogs was in 2005. With Brett Favre. Since Aaron Rodgers was QB, in 14 years they’ve only been 7 points dogs in 8 games. They’ve lost all of them.
Since week 7, so the last 10 games, the Packers gave up the 4th most yards to the tight end position. They’re facing a rather good one this week, in fact I think George Kittle is probably the best all round tight end in the league. His box score didn’t show much last week but his blocking puts him above Travis Kelce for me, and the fact he loves the game so much makes me like him even more, he video of him laughing maniacally as he forces his opponent to the ground 10 yards down the field is brilliant.
Bets;
I also like the Teaser on both games, brings the Chiefs down to -1 and the 49ers to -1.5 – at 1.83 on 365/Redzone… the alt spread are around 1.72 so odds are better but not available everywhere.
I actually think the Chiefs and 49ers will probably both cover the spread but not confident enough to bet on it, if anything I’d nudge them both down to 7 or 6.5 favourites.
If you think it will be Chiefs v 49ers in the Superbowl then you can get 3.10 for the Chiefs to beat 49ers and 3.4 for the opposite result. It’s 1.67 for them two on the “name the finalists” – So a few options if you want to choose a different way around it.
I’ll be back in a couple of weeks with a lot of bets on the Superbowl. Can’t wait!
Good Luck and enjoy the games.
Adam (@TouchdownTips)
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