After a shock win for the Detroit Lions against the Super Bowl Champion KC Chiefs on Thursday night football we have made it to the first Sunday of the NFL season so I’m back for the season to provide my favourite Spread, Total, TD Scorer and Player Props for the weekends games.
The loss of Travis Kelce and Chris Jones holding out proved too much for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to overcome on Thursday night but the drops of Kadarius Toney were the stand-out from a below-par performance from the reigning Champs. A pick-6 and two other drops really hurt his team and while the Lions performed well it was a mix of the Chiefs being poor and the Lions playing up to the game. A great start to the season.
Will there be more shocks on the board tonight? I think there’s a decent chance the Browns beat the Bengals, they tend to win at least once per season in the battle of Ohio, the Buccaneers are tough to call but come in as nearly a TD underdog against the Vikings, a lot depends on Baker Mayfield but the roster around him is still pretty good. So there’s a few shocks I can see of teams upsetting the odds.
One thing I will say before getting started is that Spreads and Totals in Week 1 are the sharpest they’ll be with bettors shaping them all summer long.
Best Spread – Eagles -3.5 @ New England Patriots
The Super Bowl runner-up start their season at Foxbrough, a place which used to be one of the scariest in the league to go, but after starting the season on fire last season I expect them to do similar this year. They have Jalen Hurt behind the best offensive line in the league, they have one of the best defensive lines which only got deeper over the summer, arguably the best WR duo in the league, a top TE and a trio of running backs to rotate through the game in the shape or D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell and Rashaad Penny (as well as Boston Scott who pops up now and then) and they’re still allowed to do their ruck and maul which turns any 3rd or 4th and two into an automatic gain.
They’re up against one of the worst offensive rosters in the league led by Mac Jones who is probably 25th at best at his position. They have a decent RB duo but Rhamondre Stevenson is questionable with illness which would leave it all to Ezekiel Elliott who signed up recently. The pass-catching group is poor, being “led” by Juju Smith-Schuster who has shown he can’t be a 1 in his career, so it may be more Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki who came over from the Dolphins. In fairness the Pats do have a good defense but I don’t think they’ll keep up with the Eagles.
Shout out to the Seahawks -5 hosting a decimated Rams team as my second choice.
Best Total – Panthers @ Falcons o39.5
Now, I don’t rate Bryce Young, I think he’s going to have a rough year in Carolina behind a poor offensive line with a severe lack of weapons to get the ball to with DJ Chark missing this week, Adam Thielen questionable and not a whole lot more around them, HOWEVER, they go up against a Falcons team which will likely struggle to generate pressure and Jonathan Mingo has been getting a lot of hype as a pass-catcher for the Panthers. Add to that an upgrade on the second half of last year with Miles Sanders toting the rock frequently, he’s a talented back and I’m looking forward to seeing how he does as a full RB1.
The Falcons will be a run heavy team once more after drafting Bijan Robinson at the top of the draft, they add him to Tyler Allgeier who topped 1,000 yards on the ground last year, they have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines and a trio of tight ends who they love for Art Smith to be able to replicate the offense he had in Tennessee with the Titans. I don’t mind 2nd year Desmond Ridder and there could be a breakout for Drake London and Kyle Pitts this year.
I think this will be sneaky high-scoring so I’ll take it over the low total on the board.
Best TD Scorer(s)
There’s not many times you’ll be able to find Christian McCaffrey at EVEN money as he is tonight (Bet365/888Sport) – The 49ers are going with Brock Purdy at QB so that should mean a lot of work for CmC on the ground and pass-catching. He’s my favourite to lead the league in TDs this year and while he faces a tough defense in week 1 I think he’ll find the endzone.
A long, long shot is Mycole Pruitt for the Falcons, available at 22/1 (PaddyPower) he might be the third choice TE but he scored 4 time in the 10 games he caught a pass last year and while I think Kyle Pitts scores a few more this year he and Jonnu Smith at 17/2 (Skybet) should still pop up now and then.
Best Player Prop
The Texans won’t have an easy year with a lack of pass-catching talent on the team and a rookie QB making his first starts, and facing the Ravens on the road in week 1 isn’t exactly a tempting spot to look for a prop on one of their players, BUT Dameon Pierce longest rush o12.5 yards is the one I’m landing on tonight. He’s a tough runner who loves contact so he’ll bash through any gaps and he topped this line in 8 of the 13 games he played in last season before missing the final few games through injury.
Good Luck if you’re betting on the games tonight, should be a cracking start to the next 20+ weeks of NFL ACTION!
Adam Walford @TouchdownTips – Find full game previews on TDTips.com
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