Week 11 of the NFL season is here already and as we approach Thanksgiving things start to get interesting.
The highlights of the slate this weekend see the Browns and Bills, and Jets and Patriots in the early slate while one I always look forward to is the Bengals and Steelers, but the Cowboys and Vikings takes the main interest in the late games and the Cheifs and Chargers was rightly moved into SNF to close out the evening.
I’ll keep it fairly short and sweet this week as the day has got away from me and with the World Cup starting this week I’ve got to get some research done on that for various betting prospects! Check out the fantastic previews in the footy section on this site. Pundits predictions
Best Spread Bet
Patriots -3 vs. Jets
I think I tipped up the Patriots when they hosted the Jets a few weeks back, a game where they won and covered the spread. The spread that day, on the road at the Metlife was the Patriots -3 points… it’s the same now in Foxborough. That doesn’t make much sense to me so I’m taking the Patriots to make it 13 wins in a row against this opponent.
The Pats have covered the spread in 9 of those 13 wins and the record in the regular season shows that the Jets haven’t won here since 2008.
Sure the Jets are probably the better team at the moment, but Bill Belichick will scheme up a way to get pressure on the young Zach Wilson and he won’t be able to cope. They’ll run the ball down the Jets throats with Stevenson and Harris (who returns from injury) and control the ball as much as they can, all the while taking it away from Mac Jones who I will admit is a concern for me, he throw one of the worst pick 6’s of the season when the Pats won this matchup earlier in the season only for it to be called back for a flag and they went on to win.
The Jets are without Corey Davis and with Michael Carter and James Robsinson at RB, I don’t think they have enough to overcome a stout Pats defense.
Best Total
Bears and Falcons o48.5
The Totals on Bears game have been creeping up week on week but the highest scoring offense of the last month should have high totals, and I like this one. They have scored at least 29 points in each of their last 4 and won a total of 1 games in that time… They have figured things out on offense with Justin Fields looking unstoppable at times and their defense has taken a huge step back after trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith. So… POINTS! – The Falcons defense has been putrid for a lot of this year too and the possible return of AJ Terrell probably won’t help that much against the leading rushers in the league.
Should be points on both sides so I’ll take the over.
Best TD Scorer
Jonathan Taylor (10/11, 11/10 on Betfred)
The Colts got off to winning start with Jeff Saturday as their head coach last week, but it was probably due more to the fact they were allowed to play Matt Ryan instead of Sam Ellinger and that Jonathan Taylor was seemingly fully healthy for the first time this year as he found the endzone against the Raiders. The Eagles defense is a lot better than that Raiders team but I can’t say no to Taylor being around evens depending where you look.
A random longer shot I like is Chris Moore for the Texans, available at 5/1 (Paddypower) – they’re awful but he’s been able to find the endzone a few times this year on deep shots. It’s unlikely but 5/1 was my buy price so I’m going for it.
Best Player Prop
TJ Watt 1+ sack
TJ Watt returned to action for the Steelers last week and while he didn’t get on the stat-sheet he caused chaos up front on a team which has to lean on it’s defense to get wins, he goes up against a Bengals team who he notched up just one sack on in the opening game of the season. The Bengals offensive line has been better since that dismal beginning but does typically struggle against divisional rivals and the Steelers will have this game marked.
TJ Watt 1+ sack is at 8/11 on Skybet Requests, I’ve not found it elsewhere but have a look around just in case.
Short and sweet tonight, enjoy the THRILLING opening to the World Cup and then move onto the NFL later! A perfect Sunday.
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