A lovely week for me last week, hitting the spread, total and 2 TD scorers at decent prices. The longshot with Logan Thomas wasn’t a million miles, but a nice 10 points of profit for the week. It’s actually 30-30-1 for the season, but with bigger-priced TD scorers it’s usually profitable.
Week 14 NFL Preview
Best spread
A weird week for spreads, some big ones with some terrible teams facing off either against each other, or against someone average. The Seahawks for example, 9 point favourites on the road in Houston. Both having very poor seasons, yet it’s still Seattle or pass against the spread and I don’t trust them to cover the 9, even though 10 points might achieve that.
There’s a few very nice looking games though, the Bucs and Bills is the game of the day and I fancy the Bucs to win going away, they should cover the 3.5, but I am aware I’m very biased against the Bills as I didn’t think they’d have a stellar year and that’s proving true, so I don’t want to lean into my confirmation bias.
Another team I was high on though is the Dallas Cowboys and they’re laying 4.5 now on the road in Washington. It’s been a spunky month for Washington winning 4 in a row to keep them in with a chance of taking the division and a win here would definitely help them achieve that, but other than the very impressive win against the Bucs they haven’t really beaten anyone. Sure the defense has been better and they’re getting just enough from the offense, but I have the Cowboys considerably better.
They haven’t exactly impressed recently either in all honesty but will have Amari Cooper back to health this week and he’s a big part of their offense, with him, Lamb and Gallup all available the passing attack should be clicking. The run game is a bit beaten up though, Zeke is meant to be on a snap count and they nurse his knee injury while Tony Pollard “tore his plantar fascia” last week, that’s a very painful injury but he wants to play. The offensive line should make space and keep them protected while the return of Demarcus Lawrence on the defensive line is big and they should be able to pressure Heinicke.
Fair respect to Washington but I’m taking the Cowboys -4.5 – 10/11 (everywhere)
Best Total
A lot of low totals this week, most of the games under 43 points and there are a few I am still looking to go under. Jags v Titans should be terrible, the Jags are a hot mess while the Titans have a ton of injuries, Seahawks v Texans isn’t going to be watched by any neutrals and I doubt it gets much air time on Redzone tonight.
I am taking the Under in Denver though. The Lions rightly won their first game last weekend, this is a huge comedown spot for them though, and while they might have carried on their form if they had a fully healthy roster, it is far from that as flu has ravaged the team this week. They are missing many, many players. Swift and Jamaal Williams are both out at running back, TJ Hockenson misses from the TE spot.
Denver are looking healthy though and Melvin Gordon returns to the backfield this week. They have a good offense on paper and with an above-average QB in the summer could be a sneaky look next season.
But for now, I think we’re looking at 7-24 or something similar to the Broncos. UNDER 42 – 10/11 (Everywhere)
Best TD Scorer
After a few nice successes last week, I’m looking at my boy again this week, if you can get Joe Mixon around evens, then why the hell would you not take it? He’s scored in 9 games in a row now, and yet he’s still at 10/11 (365/vBet) to find the endzone this week in a game I expect to be high scoring. It might seem boring repeating the same guys week in, week out, but while they’re still giving me this price I’m going to take it.
A bit of a random punt here, and again I might be taking bias into this one a little too much, but Rashaad Penny at 13/5 on Betfair is a good price for me. Adrian Peterson came in for a game, but as tends to happen when employing old men, he’s out with a back injury, as is Travis Homer, so they’re running low at RB and Pete Carroll likes Penny. It’s a game they should win comfortably, he can break off big runs, and get through tackles. Why the heck not.
Best prop bet
I’ll chuck in a prop bet here too, I was looking at James Robinson rush yards, but they’ve got to a point where there’s no value left now, opened at 34.5, I got on at 47.5 and it’s now 55.5 so that’s gone too much for me with an idiot at head coach.
I do like Taysom Hill rush yards, he topped 100 last week and faces the Jets who are terrible against opposing RBs, and that’s basically what he is, 54.5 is reasonable given the yardage he tends to put up in games.
I’m going to go against my own team. Joe Burrow o0.5 interceptions – 5/6 (365) It won for me earlier in the year and it wasn’t pretty from them last week, although everything went against them, but Joey keeps throwing the ball into coverage, keeps being aggressive and despite him talking about his league-leading stat, I don’t think he’ll change this week. He’s only kept the ball safe in 3 games this year, I think it happens again here.
Good luck if you follow along.
Adam.
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