After trips to the last two Super Bowls, many expected the Kansas City Chiefs to continue their domination of the AFC this season en route to another appointment with the NFL’s flagship event.
It has not proved that way, with the Chiefs’ 3-4 record seeing them sit bottom of their division. On Monday, they host the 2-5 New York Giants in a must-win home contest to get their season back on track.
Mahomes Struggling
When Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes signed a ten-year contract extension worth $503m last July, it made him the highest-paid player in American sports history. The 2018 MVP has struggled this season, casting a spotlight on the contract he agreed just over a year ago.
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Mahomes has thrown a league-high nine interceptions, and the Chiefs in total have given the ball away 17 times, another tally that is the worst in the league. For a quarterback who had an average passer rating of 108.2 last year, Mahomes has now had four of his last five games with a rating of 91 or less.
That is a key explanation as to why the Chiefs’ four losses this year are already as many as they had in the last two regular seasons combined.
Defensive Worries for KC
Another issue for Kansas City has been defensively, where they have given up an average of 404.6 yards per game, ranking them 28th in the NFL. Their 29 points per game conceded is tied for 27th in the league. They have allowed their opponents to score 29 points or more in each one in their three previous home games this year.
The Chiefs defence faces one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the league in the shape of Daniel Jones.
Jones’ 229 yards rushing leads the Giants and the Chiefs defence has allowed the most rushing touchdowns from quarterbacks with four. Jones is priced up at 33/10 for a touchdown in the game and could prove a thorn in the Chiefs’ side.
Giants Hampered by Injuries
This match marks the beginning of a run in which the Chiefs play five of six games at home and if they have any chance of turning their season around, it must begin against the injury-hit Giants.
Star running back Saquon Barkley is out along with receiver Kenny Golladay. The other two top receivers for New York, Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard are doubts, and the Chiefs must take advantage of their opponents’ misfortune.
The Chiefs are 4/19 to get the win, while the Giants, who are looking for back-to-back victories for the first time this season, will be hoping to capitalise on a reeling Kansas side and are 15/4 to produce the upset.
Given Kansas City’s defensive frailty and the must-win nature of the tie, the market for over points, with its line of over 51.5 at 10/11 could prove of interest.
*All odds correct at time of writing.