The regular season is almost done, but there’s still some stuff to get settled as the playoff pictures start to finalise. The three Sky games today should all be crackers, all with playoff implications as the Colts and Steelers, Rams and Seahawks and Titans and Packers all chase the post-season in their respective conferences. Trying to concentrate on motivation spots seems the main things for picking spreads, but there’s value to be had in “dead games” as teams rotate players.
I hit 2.5 out of 4 last week for an improvement on most of the season, the Cheifs failing to hold on to the cover was irritating, and they’ve done it all year. I think they’ll step up when needed but there’s also a chance they’re just not there this year.
Spread
I’ve actually got quite a few spreads I like this week, but as above, concentrating on the important games seems to make sense. I like the Falcons to cover (the Chiefs haven’t covered the spread in the last 6 games) The Chargers (But they throw games away in ridiculous fashion and have injuries) – The Eagles (NFC East clash is a worry) I like the Titans to beat the Packers in Lambeau as well, but I’ll be looking at the total there instead of spread.
My pick this week will be the Rams +1.5 in Seattle. They suffered the most embarrassing defeat of the season last week but are still in with a shot of winning the division and they need the win here to keep those hopes alive (with the Cardinals coming next week) while the Seahawks know a win here gets them the NFC West title. The Rams won the earlier game between the two this season and McVay is 5-2 in games against Pete Carroll in his career, I’m taking him to make to 6-2. Ramsey will be on DK again, and the Rams have the 4th best run defense in the league according to DVOA so they should slow them there as well.
I trust McVay to win the game and that gets the cover.
Total
I alluded to it above, the Packers v Titans game should be really high scoring. The strengths of each team matchup to the weaknesses of the other as Rodgers should have a field day with no pressure in his face all game and a weak secondary while the Titans, and Derrick Henry should be able to run all over the Packers run defense especially after being rested for the 4th quarter last week. The Titans have 40 points in 4 of their last 5 games and the Packers should put up 20+ as well. I like the OVER 53.5
TD Scorer
I’m looking at a little value in the Browns game as they’ve lost their entire starting WR corps for this game. So it’s either going for one of the two running backs or looking at one of the tight ends to score at a mildly decent price. Kareem Hunt is available above evens and that’s good enough for me. He may get a few snaps in the slot today with the lack of talent they’ve got there and he’s one I’d look for to go over on his receiving line if the books ever put them back up (31.5 on Hills) – Even if he’s not in the slot, he’s been scoring anyway and you’ve got to expect them to use the RBs even more than they already do.
Player prop
I went there last week and they’ve not changed the line for this week, I think I’m going back to Dallas Goedert o3.5 receptions in a divisional game against a poor Cowboys defense. The players targeted in Hurts 2nd game as starter were the tight ends and Reagor. Goedert has been the most reliable of the three this season, so I’ll re-visit that well and take him to go over again at 10/11.
Summary
- Rams +1.5 @ 10/11 (Skybet)
- Titans v Packers OVER 53.5 points @ Redzone, 54 elsewhere is fine.
- Kareem Hunt anytime @ 5/4 (Will Hill)
- Dallas Goedert o3.5 receptions – 10/11 (365/Sky/Hills)
Good luck, and thank you for reading this year. It’s not been good result-wise, but I hope the previews and comment section have helped you make decisions.
Check out my site for previews on all games TDtips.com
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