One more for the road. The UFC finishes off their eight-event, month-and-a-half run out of their home gym, the UFC Apex, this Saturday night. After this, it is back to the mythical “UFC Fight Island” (aka Flash Forum in Abu Dhabi).
Their farewell event in the Las Vegas desert will be UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Woodley, which is a very solid card, much stronger than the most recent string of events they’ve put on. The main event pits two bitter rivals, finally (hopefully) settling their score. In one corner is former interim UFC Welterweight Champion, and champion MAGA loving troll, Colby Covington. In the other corner, former UFC Welterweight Champion Tyron Woodley.
This fight has been rumoured and bubbling under the surface for quite a few years. Unfortunately, now when it is finally happening one of the combatants seems to have nothing left in the tank. That would be ‘T-Wood’, loser of two straight. It’s not just the fact that he hasn’t won a fight in over two years – it’s how he’s looked in those fights. More tentative then ever, he seemed unable or unwilling to ever pull the trigger. It resulted in him losing every round of the past two fights. Yes, he has lost 10 straight rounds in the octagon.
I guess I’ve tipped my hand and made my choice for winner in this fight obvious. Despite losing his last fight to champion Kamaru Usman, ‘Chaos’ Covington seems to still have plenty of fight left in him, and his relentless fighting style should win him every round that this fight lasts. Covington at 1/4 is the pick.
Cowboy vs Brawler
The co-main event sees the beloved Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone clash with brawler Niko Price. Like Woodley, the 37-year-old Cowboy has seen better days in the cage, having dropped his last four fights. But check out who he fought in those four fights: Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje, Conor McGregor, and Anthony Pettis. A murderers’ row of fighters even a younger Cerrone probably would have struggled against. Nike Price is not among this class of pugilist. ‘The Hybrid’ is a boom or bust fighter – he’ll knock his opponent out or get knocked out trying. Cowboy is a much more cerebral fighter, better on the feet and the ground, and should be able to figure out this puzzle. As a bonus, you can currently get him at plus money – 6/5.
If you like that sweet, sweet underdog action (and who doesn’t?!), I’m also high on UFC newcomer Sarah Alpar (you can familiarize yourself more with her right here). She’s a physically strong, dominant wrestler, just the type of fighter her opponent at her proper UFC debut on Saturday, Jessica-Rose Clark, struggles with. Take “Too Sweet” at 7/4 and look for her to grind out a decision win on Saturday night (“Jessy Jess” has never been finished in a pro fight, and Alpar doesn’t finish many opponents, so decision is the way to go if you want to take that at 20/67 or Alpar by points at 11/4).
Another underdog worth a look at is Randa Markos at 27/20. She’ll be facing Brazilian Jiu Jitsu champion Mackenzie Dern this weekend. However, despite being a world class grappler, Dern is terrible at getting her opponent to the mat in MMA fights (her success rate is an unbelievably low 7%). Markos, meanwhile, is a wrestle-heavy fighter, so she should have no trouble keeping this fight standing, where it’ll be much safer for her. If it turns into a striking battle, ‘Quiet Storm’ probably has the advantage, and could get you some of that aforementioned sweet, sweet underdog money.
*All odds correct at time of writing.