Most of the best players in the world are resting up and conserving energy for next week’s US Open, but Tommy Fleetwood made a late decision to enter the Portugal Masters, immediately taking over as favourite for the low-key European Tour gathering.
The tournament has been staged at the Dom Pedro Victoria Course, Vilamoura, since 2007, and the straightforward, wide-open layout will again be in the spotlight for the Tour’s second post-lockdown Continental gathering. The circuit has moved from Valderrama, Sotogrande, where John Catlin won the Andalucia Masters on Sunday.
Fleetwood is 11/2 for Portugal Masters success, but his previous spins at the Victoria Course have not been especially impressive. The Southport man has form figures of MC-26-12-22-37 from his five visits. He has teed up five times post-lockdown, with results of MC-35-29-59-44, so is clearly using the low-grade European Tour event to get into contention and generate some confidence.
Strong South African Contingent May Upset Favourite
Fleetwood could have most to worry about this week from the South African raiders – George Coetzee, Wilco Nienaber and Brandon Stone have brought strong credentials to Vilamoura.
Coetzee can boast a magnificent Victoria record, with results of 3-6-21-31-7-20-14 from seven visits, and the burly Pretorian is fresh from a four-shot victory on the Sunshine Tour last Sunday.
Coetzee, a 14/1 chance this week, is a four-time European Tour champion who can be fancied to contend, while his much younger compatriot Nienaber could make merry on his Victoria debut.
Nienaber, fourth in the English Championship last month and sixth in the Andalucia Masters on Sunday, is a 19-year-old rising star who can be backed at 25/1.
Stone finished tied for second in last year’s Portugal Masters and is widely regarded as one of the most talented youngsters to have emerged from South Africa in the last decade. He has been short of form post-lockdown, but could easily catch fire this week, so some punters may be interested in the 40/1.
Italian Stallion Could Be Ready to Win Again
It was a massive confidence boost for Guido Migliozzi to finish sixth in the Andalucia Masters on Sunday and the big-hitting 23-year-old could build on that effort by winning a third European Tour title this week.
Victories in the Kenya Open and Belgian Knockout last year marked Migliozzi down as a potential superstar in the making, but he has struggled post-lockdown and did not show his best until teeing up in Sotogrande last week.
Losing by only three shots at Valderrama was a superb effort from a player who is better suited to more open tracks where he can harness his natural length and aggression. The Victoria in Vilamoura is ideal for him and on his debut there last year he improved as the week went on.
Despite arriving off form figures of MC-MC-48-MC, the Italian, a prolific winner on the Alps Tour before qualifying for the European Tour, finished 14th, closing with a 65, so the 35/1 on offer could be tempting to many.
*All odds correct at time of writing