Readers of this space are aware I’m not shy about critiquing the UFC when they put out a weak fight card (on paper). Well, there’s no worry of me doing that this week, as UFC 266 is one of the best fight cards they’ve presented in many, many years. This despite fights falling off the card and last-minute substitutions added to it.
Saturday’s festivities, beamed around the world from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (technically Paradise), is headlined by two UFC title fights, with another five-round fight thrown in for good measure. So, it could be a long night come Saturday. It could be an exceptionally long night for me if any underdogs come through, as this card is completely chalky to me.
In the main event we see UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski defend his strap against top contender (and former title challenger) Brian Ortega. Ortega’s lone MMA loss was in his aforementioned first crack at a UFC title, as he got stopped by strikes by then-champion Max Holloway. Unfortunately for Ortega and his backers, I see him faring not much better in his second kick at the can.
‘Alexander the Great’ is a formidable foe and a tough nut to crack. He’s a powerful, explosive athlete, having played pro rugby in his native Australia at about 70-pounds heavier than his current weigh-in weight of 145 pounds. Add to this his remarkable durability, strong grappling, and intelligent fighting style and game planning, and I don’t see a clear path to victory here for Ortega. Volkanovski at 8/15 is the pick.
Valentina Untouchable in Co-Main Event
The co-main event should be a total mismatch, as all Valentina Shevchenko fights are. The UFC Women’s Flyweight Champion looks totally untouchable, only losing two bantamweight fights to the women’s GOAT Amanda Nunes in her UFC career. Saturday’s opponent Lauren Murphy is no Amanda Nunes (to be fair, no one is BUT the real-life Amanda Nunes). While Murphy is extremely tough and durable, there is no space this fight takes place in on Saturday where she is superior to Shevchenko. The champ retains at 1/22.
The third five-round fight on the card is a strange one – a rematch 17 years in the making. Nick Diaz knocked out Robbie Lawler at UFC 47 way back in 2004 – Andre Arlovski is the only other fighter from that fight card still competing in the UFC. Former UFC Welterweight Champion Lawler has looked totally washed up in his recent fights, unable to pull the trigger, and has lost his last four and five of six. But Diaz hasn’t even fought since 2015 and hasn’t won a fight since 2011. And recent footage shows he isn’t in optimal fighting shape or form. Which might explain why earlier this week he requested – and was granted – a move from welterweight to middleweight for this fight. I have no idea what to expect from Diaz, and while Lawler has shown not to expect much from him anymore, he’s still my pick at 4/6.
Not a Night for the Underdogs to Prosper
As for underdogs, unfortunately you are on your own. There’s bound, statistically, to be three or four victorious on a fight lineup of this size, but none of them look appealing to me. I inadvertently have gone all-chalk for the event. But I’m on a prolonged hot streak, so maybe I know what I’m doing.
I do, however, have a lock pick for you once again this week. For it we head back to the main event. As mentioned above, I see no real path to victory for Brian Ortega to usurp champ Alexander Volkanovski. Ortega hits hard and knocks people out, but Volkanovski has an amazing chin and is durable. Ortega is a jiu-jitsu ace with great submissions, but Volkanovski is a very strong (physically and technically) grappler. Therefore, the champ is my lock to remain so.